Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

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This hub tracks 24 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

AfD100%
CDU0%
SPD0%
FDP0%
FW0%
BSW0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

CDUiranintlbrk97%match100¢
The Left Party won 25.3% of the vote, followed by the Christian Democrats (CDU) with 19% and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 16%. The Social Democrats (SPD) won 12.1%.
AfDvesti.ru97%match100¢
Merz's party failed to enter the Mecklenburg parliament, while the AfD won.
AfDvesti.ru97%match100¢
AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote
Preliminary vote counts show that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament election, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) failed to secure a seat in the new state parliament.
AfDfnn.jp94%match100¢
German far-right party becomes the largest party in northeastern states; Chancellor Merz calls the AfD's surge a "catastrophe," putting the ruling party at risk of losing all seats.
AfDspiegel.de96%match100¢
Ergebnis der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern-Wahl: AfD siegt vor SPD, CDU fliegt aus Landtag
CDUspiegel.de93%match100¢
Ergebnis der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern-Wahl: AfD siegt vor SPD, CDU fliegt aus Landtag
SPDspiegel.de93%match100¢
Ergebnis der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern-Wahl: AfD siegt vor SPD, CDU fliegt aus Landtag
AfDwelt.de95%match100¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Offiziell – AfD gewinnt Wahl vor SPD, CDU verpasst Landtagseinzug
SPDwelt.de93%match100¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Offiziell – AfD gewinnt Wahl vor SPD, CDU verpasst Landtagseinzug
AfDrbc.ru97%match100¢
AfD wins elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
AfDdpa.com95%match100¢
Preliminary result: AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - debacle for the CDU
CDUdpa.com94%match100¢
Preliminary result: AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - debacle for the CDU
CDUDW Reporter94%match100¢
"Desaster" for Merz‘s Conservative CDU party just got worse: • CDU fails to make 5% threshold in an election for the first time in its modern history in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. • All votes counted. No CDU seats in MV regional Parliament. • More pressure on Merz.
CDUNews95%match100¢
URGENTLY Merz's CDU fails to enter the parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in Germany - electoral commission
AfDNews97%match100¢
URGENT AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the protocols have been counted – Electoral Commission
AfDRussian Media98%match100¢
The AfD party won the parliamentary elections in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, the German Electoral Commission reported. Merz's CDU failed to qualify for parliament, receiving only 4.9%. More IZ RU news in MAX
CDURussian Media97%match100¢
The AfD party won the parliamentary elections in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, the German Electoral Commission reported. Merz's CDU failed to qualify for parliament, receiving only 4.9%. More IZ RU news in MAX
AfDRussian state TV98%match100¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has won the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament elections with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, according to the election commission. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU has failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time in German history, receiving less than 5%. Earlier, Merz called his party's performance in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections a disaster.
CDURussian state TV97%match100¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has won the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament elections with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, according to the election commission. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU has failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time in German history, receiving less than 5%. Earlier, Merz called his party's performance in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections a disaster.
CDUNews96%match100¢
Merz's CDU fails to qualify for the parliamentary elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in Germany, receiving only 4.9% after 100% of the votes were counted - ELECTION COMMISSION
AfDNews97%match100¢
AfD party wins parliamentary elections in German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2% of votes after 100% of protocols have been processed - ELECTION COMMISSION
AfDRussian Media97%match100¢
Local elections were held in Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in Germany. According to an exit poll from ARD, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in the latter state with 37%. The SPD received 35.5% of the vote, the CDU - 5.5%, slightly exceeding the threshold. The Left Party received 7.5%, the Greens - 5.5%, and the Union of Sahra Wagenknecht - 5%. If the CDU fails to enter the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state assembly, it will not just be a slap in the face, but a serious blow to the reputation of Friedrich Merz and the party, believes Alexander Kamkin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. The expert does not rule out either an internal coup within the CDU itself or the collapse of the coalition. Criticism of Merz is heard from both CDU and SPD functionaries. But in the event of a potential collapse of the coalition, the Social Democrats themselves will find themselves in a vulnerable position, notes Artem Sokolov, a senior research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies. What will happen to the German Chancellor after the state elections – in the Vedomosti article. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Exit polls: Far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
SPDwelt.de93%match0¢
Election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: The SPD's jubilation is stifled.
SPDspiegel.de93%match0¢
Election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: The result is a success for the SPD. Nevertheless, tears are flowing.
AfDNewswire92%match98¢+2%
Germany's CDU Suffers Historic Collapse, Falls Below 5% in Mecklenburg Vote as AfD Leads With 38%
CDUvesti.ru95%match100¢
The CDU fails to enter the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament.
CDUalarabytv91%match100¢
#Breaking | Al-Araby TV correspondent: The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has received 4.9% of the vote, according to preliminary results in the German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The CDU's 4.9% of the vote falls short of the parliamentary threshold required for representation in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament.
CDUdpa.com92%match100¢
CDU suffers a collapse in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – Left Party ahead in Berlin

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).