Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?35-38%
ResolvedOutcome: No$16Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
After his party secured 4.9% and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) garnered 38.2%, Merz describes the defeat as a "disaster" and clings to the chancellorship. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described his party's loss in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania elections as a "disaster," but affirmed his commitment to his position and continuing his reform agenda. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party considered the result a new success, while its leader, Tino Schröbel, stated that his party had ousted the Social Democratic Party (SPD) from the lead and "crushed" the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Calls for a change of course within the CDU intensified after the results, but Merz refused to resign and confirmed his continued leadership as chancellor and party leader. The AfD, which advocates for the deportation of foreigners, won the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania elections with 38.2%, ahead of the SPD, which received 35.5%.
AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote
Where does the news lean?
1YES3NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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