Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?38%+
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$53Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
In the German federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the state parliament elections with 38.2% of the vote. At the same time, Chancellor Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) received 4.9% and for the first time in the party's history failed to enter the state parliament. This is according to preliminary results of the state elections published by the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election commission.
AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote
YESNews92%match99¢+1%
URGENT AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the protocols have been counted – Electoral Commission
Where does the news lean?
3YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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