Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?32-35%
ResolvedOutcome: No$15Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The far-right has won the elections in Germany again, threatening Merz's position - DW The Alternative for Germany party won the parliamentary elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with about 38% of the vote. The Social Democrats came in second with about 35%. The Left Party is leading in the state capital, Merz's conservatives are second, and the far-right is only third with 16%. Two weeks earlier, the same party also won in Saxony-Anhalt, gaining almost 44%. The media is discussing a possible replacement for Merz without early elections - on the evening of the voting day, he convened the party leadership to find out whether they support him in office. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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