How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?5-6
Open$116Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 45% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES45¢
NO56¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOElon Musk99%match66¢-17%
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.