How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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Market pricing makes <5 the favorite at 50% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .

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<550%
5-645%
7-83%
>162%

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16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

13-14dbws.io91%match1¢-100%
SpaceX Stock Falls After 'Near Perfect' 13th Starship Test. Flight 14 Will Be Wild. -- Barrons.com
13-14dbws.io92%match1¢-100%
SpaceX Stock Still Struggles After 'Near Perfect' 13th Starship Test. Flight 14 Will Be Wild. -- Barrons.com
13-14dbws.io93%match1¢-100%
SpaceX Stock Rises After 13th Starship Test -- Flight 14 Will Be Wild -- Barrons.com
13-14Kazinform92%match1¢-100%
Starship's 13th test launch ended with a successful splashdown SpaceX successfully conducted the 13th test launch of the Starship super-heavy rocket after a series of launch delays. The ship's upper stage performed a controlled descent and splashed down in the Indian Ocean. During the mission, the ship was supposed to launch 20 Starlink V3 test satellites into a suborbital trajectory, ignite one of the Raptor engines in outer space, and test new heat shield control methods. [in reply to: Starship successfully completed its first test flight after a series of failures SpaceX conducted the 12th test launch of the Starship V3 rocket. The spacecraft spent about an hour in space and made a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. This is Starship's first test flight since October 2025. A previous launch attempt was canceled seconds before liftoff due to technical problems. ]
7-8elonmusk96%match12¢-75%
All 13 Starship Launches • • Flight 1: Apr 20, 2023 • Flight 2: Nov 18, 2023 • Flight 3: Mar 14, 2024 • Flight 4: Jun 6, 2024 • Flight 5: Oct 13, 2024 • Flight 6: Nov 19, 2024 • Flight 7: Jan 16, 2025 • Flight 8: Mar 6, 2025 • Flight 9: May 27, 2025 • Flight 10: Aug 26, 2025 • Flight 11: Oct 13, 2025 • Flight 12: May 22, 2026 • Flight 13: Jul 24, 2026
11-12iranintlbrk92%match97¢+1%
SpaceX's Starship rocket launched from Texas on Friday. It was the rocket's 13th test flight and was designed to demonstrate a range of its capabilities, including the first suborbital deployment of new Starlink satellites.
13-14iranintlbrk93%match1¢-100%
SpaceX's Starship rocket launched from Texas on Friday. It was the rocket's 13th test flight and was designed to demonstrate a range of its capabilities, including the first suborbital deployment of new Starlink satellites.
11-12Benzinga99%match92¢+7%
[Replying to @Sajwani] @Sajwani > Just in: SpaceX rolled out Starship 12 Super Heavy Booster 19 for testing
13-14Benzinga98%match3¢-100%
[Replying to @Sajwani] @Sajwani > Just in: SpaceX rolled out Starship 12 Super Heavy Booster 19 for testing
15-16Benzinga99%match2¢-100%
[Replying to @Sajwani] @Sajwani > Just in: SpaceX rolled out Starship 12 Super Heavy Booster 19 for testing
<5Elon Musk99%match86¢-42%
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.
5-6Elon Musk99%match66¢-17%
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.
7-8Elon Musk99%match67¢+45%
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.
11-12Elon Musk99%match98¢
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.
>16Elon Musk99%match1¢+100%
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.
9-10Elon Musk99%match84¢+18%
[Replying to @ApoStructura] @ApoStructura In about 3 years or so, Starship will launch more than once per hour > In the 1000 days following Starship Flight 1, SpaceX has launched 385 times, including 10 other Starship launches. At this pace it won’t be long until SpaceX reaches 1 launch a day.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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