How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?11-12

OpenVol$11KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOKazinform93%match100¢
Starship reaches orbit for the first time The SpaceX Starship spacecraft reached Earth orbit for the first time during its 14th test flight. All previous tests of the system were conducted on a suborbital trajectory. Despite a problem with one of the engines during ascent, Starship continued to fly and reached orbit approximately 25 minutes after liftoff. There were 26 Starlink V3 satellites on board; after reaching orbit, SpaceX successfully deployed them in space. [in reply to: Starship's 13th test launch ended with a successful splashdown SpaceX successfully conducted the 13th test launch of the Starship super-heavy rocket after a series of launch delays. The spacecraft's upper stage completed a controlled descent and splashed down in the Indian Ocean. During the mission, the spacecraft was expected to launch 20 Starlink V3 test satellites into a suborbital trajectory, re-ignite one of the Raptor engines in outer space, and test new heat shield control methods. ]
NOelonmusk91%match99¢+1%
SpaceX’s Starship flight 14 is launching 26 V3 Starlinks and represents ~26 Tbps for the launch (based on company specs)… at a very conservative cost estimate for Starship this puts Starships first operational launch at ~$9.8M per Tbps. Meaning in its first operational launch it nearly hits the same cost of Falcon9’s launch cost per Tbps. This is before full payload utilization, reusability and manufacturing learning rates kick in, which we expect to lead to 16x cheaper launch/Tbps cost by 2028.
NOiranintlbrk92%match97¢+3%
SpaceX's Starship rocket launched from Texas on Friday. It was the rocket's 13th test flight and was designed to demonstrate a range of its capabilities, including the first suborbital deployment of new Starlink satellites.
NOBenzinga99%match92¢+9%
[Replying to @Sajwani] @Sajwani > Just in: SpaceX rolled out Starship 12 Super Heavy Booster 19 for testing

Where does the news lean?

0YES6NO4neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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