US charges Hormuz feesDecember 31
Open$104Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Politico, citing a White House official: Any fees or taxes levied through the Strait of Hormuz are out of the question for the United States.
A US official stated that any temporary passages in the Strait of Hormuz would be free of any obstacles, meaning no approvals or permits would be required, and no transit fees or other charges would be imposed.
Asked whether Tehran would be willing to restore full freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said: “It has to be. I’m not going to let them charge money or set a fee. If someone is going to charge a fee, we’re going to charge it.” Emphasizing that the goal is for the Strait of Hormuz to be “fully open by tomorrow,” Trump added: “We have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. There’s not going to be any fee. There’s no question of charging a fee.”
Asked whether Tehran would be willing to restore full freedom of navigation through the Strait, Trump said: "It has to be. I will not allow them to charge money or set a fee. If anyone is going to charge a fee, we will charge it. We have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. There is not going to be any fee. There is no question of charging a fee at all."
A US official told Reuters: The agreement under consideration regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the post-Iran war is focused solely on coordinating passage through this waterway and will not include any tolls or fees for ships to pass through.
Reuters, quoting a US official: The agreement being discussed regarding the Strait of Hormuz concerns coordination and does not involve transit fees or other charges.
Iran war deal to have no fees, no tolls for passage through Strait of Hormuz, US official says
Reuters, quoting a US official: The agreement being discussed regarding the Strait of Hormuz concerns coordination and does not involve transit fees or other charges.
#Breaking | Reuters, quoting a US official: The agreement being discussed regarding the Strait of Hormuz concerns coordination and does not involve transit fees or other charges.
Trump explained why he canceled the collection of fees in the Strait of Hormuz: "Different people from other countries, strong partners, wrote to me, and they said they would like to do it a different way - invest billions of dollars in the United States."
TRUMP: They said, "We'd like to do it differently. We'd rather invest billions and billions of dollars in America than pay a fee and continue our record-breaking investment, because there's never been a time like this for America, with factories, manufacturing facilities, everything else." And I actually like that proposal, because I don't think anybody could charge a fee for a strait, or any kind of similar sea route in other parts of the world. I don't think anybody should really be in that position.
Where does the news lean?
2YES20NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
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