Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
ResolvedOutcome: No$11.8Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
49 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Strait Of Hormuz Is Caught In The Crossfire Again. Traffic Has Plummeted By Two Thirds. • Tankers are increasingly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz since hostilities between the U.S. and Iran resumed, according to new data.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May. #AlArabiya_Business
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to drop
Shipping data: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains very limited amid renewed US-Iranian strikes
With the return of the blockade on Iranian ports, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined, raising concerns about energy supplies.
Maritime traffic is falling, oil is rising... The global economy hangs on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Live: Shipping through Strait of Hormuz still subdued
Live: US blockade on Iran's ports to begin at 4 p.m. as Strait of Hormuz traffic ticks along
Live: Strait of Hormuz crossings plummet again
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic plummets as just 10 ships cross yesterday
No surprise here; we are seeing a slowdown in Hormuz traffic @Kpler. 1 -10 July, when post-MoU traffic was still clearing through the Strait, confirmed crossings across all commodity-carrying vessel classes fell from 296, or 30 per day, to 32 over 11 -13 July, or 11 per day. On 12 to 13 July, Kpler recorded only 12 confirmed crossings as of the evening of 13 July. #OOTT
Bloomberg reported that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had almost ground to a halt on Tuesday morning, citing ship tracking data.
Live: Shipping through Strait of Hormuz continues to drop
Live: CENTCOM to resume Strait of Hormuz blockade today
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in two months
Iran fires at two ships on the Strait of Hormuz as traffic sinks to lowest in 5 weeks
Only six ships transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, as shipping traffic plummeted to its lowest level in weeks due to the recent escalation.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRAFFIC TURNS DEFENSIVE • • Confirmed crossings fell around 52% week on week between 10–12 July, according to MarineTraffic. • • Vessels increasingly favoured Iranian and Dark routes, while IMO and Omani corridor activity dropped to minimal levels. • • Despite no confirmed attacks since 27 June, US–Iran tensions and IRGC warnings continue to drive cautious routing.
Reuters, citing shipping data: The number of oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell yesterday to its lowest level in two months.
Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Falls to Lowest Point in a Month After Strikes
Live: Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Falls to Lowest Point in a Month After Strikes
Live: Commercial vessel movement remains restricted in Strait of Hormuz
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in several weeks
Strait of Hormuz traffic turns defensive • • Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply over 10–12 July, with confirmed crossings down by around 52% week on week, according to #MarineTraffic data. • • Traffic also shifted back toward more defensive routing patterns. Use of the Iranian and Dark routes increased, while activity on the IMO and Omani corridors fell to minimal levels, indicating that operators continue to prioritise perceived security over more direct transit options. • • Although no new IMO-confirmed physical attacks have been reported since 27 June, renewed US-Iran tensions and recent IRGC warnings continue to weigh on confidence, reinforcing a cautious approach to commercial shipping through the region.
Live: Traffic through strait of Hormuz plummets after US-Iran strikes
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to five-week low
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
Live: Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
Urgent: Explosions in the Strait of Hormuz
Urgent: Explosions in the Strait of Hormuz
CNN wrote that, based on ship tracking data, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again decreased sharply.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic drops after Iran declares waterway closed, tracking data shows
02:59/ July 11
The Strait of Hormuz was completely closed from all directions.
Complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains muted
Live: Hormuz traffic falls for second straight day: Data monitoring firm
Strait of Hormuz crossings fall as operators remain cautious • • Confirmed vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell for a second consecutive day on 9 July, dropping to 22 crossings from 30 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Activity remained largely low-risk, with commercial movements only slightly exceeding non-commercial traffic. Operators continued to favour the Iranian route, while the Omani route recorded just one crossing, reinforcing the lasting impact of recent security incidents near Oman. No new physical attacks have been recorded since 7 July, but renewed US-Iran military escalation continues to weigh on confidence that diplomatic efforts will deliver near-term stability.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted and almost come to a standstill.
"Without a concrete agreement, the situation will remain very, very unstable": maritime traffic falls again in the Strait of Hormuz after further exchanges of fire.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic won't rebound without "substantial agreement" between U.S. and Iran, analysts say
Iran War: Almost no traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz again.
Live: Strait of Hormuz oil tanker traffic grinds to near halt
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic down to 23 ships yesterday
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz ‘grinds to a near halt’
Prediction Markets Keep Betting The Strait of Hormuz Will Reopen But What If This Is the New Normal?. • Prediction markets have repeatedly pushed back expectations for normal Strait of Hormuz traffic, raising questions over whether traders are underestimating a permanent shift in Gulf shipping.
Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has essentially ceased.
Live: Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz "essentially stopped"
After latest Iran attacks, Kalshi traders don't see traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal this year
Where does the news lean?
5YES76NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.