Russia Election: 2nd Place Party List in Moscow?Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$18KResolvedas of

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This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

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1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESRussian news outlet Agentstvo94%match99¢+1%
In Moscow, at every 19th polling station after the elections, voting results were rewritten. At least 77 polling stations in Moscow (out of 1,443) altered vote counting protocols, electoral analyst Ivan Shukshin told Agency. In some cases, changes were made to protocols that had previously been falsified in favor of United Russia, another electoral expert, Roman Udot, commented on the situation. Details. At least 182 protocols were amended after the elections, Shukshin told Agency. However, only 77 of these changes affected the lower portion of the protocols containing the voting results at the polling stations, the analyst added. Shukshin believes the actual number of amended protocols may be higher. Some changes to the GAS Elections system could be made in such a way that they would be untraceable later, the analyst explained. In some cases, the results shift in favor of United Russia, according to a post by Shukshin published on Tuesday evening. At polling station 2700, before the change, New People had received the most votes—29.5%, followed by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) with 28.2%, and United Russia with 21.5%, the analyst wrote. After the protocol changes, United Russia's result was 86.8%, the CPRF with 2.5%, and New People with 2%. But there are also counterexamples, Shukshin told Agency. At polling station 2859, United Russia initially received 549 votes (90%), while the Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 4 votes (0.66%). In the updated protocol, United Russia retained 275 votes (45.08%), while the Communist Party received 274 (44.92%). The number of invalid ballots increased from zero to four. At polling stations 2639, 2650, and 2663 in Moscow's Mozhaisk district, according to a repeat protocol signed Monday evening by the territorial election commission, United Russia lost 1,000 votes, while the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) and A Just Russia (SR) each gained 500 votes, the local Telegram channel "For Mozhaisk! Mozhaisk District" reported. This is an attempt to "de-falsify" the results already changed in favor of United Russia, Udot wrote to the Agency. According to his assessment, during the initial falsification, so many votes were added to United Russia that A Just Russia fell below the threshold, after which some votes had to be redistributed. "A special operation is currently underway. It's not just happening at one polling station. The data is being cleaned so that A Just Russia gets into the State Duma," the expert wrote to the Agency. Udot explains the simultaneous return of votes from the Socialist Revolutionaries and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation by the fact that it's impossible to determine how many votes were originally taken from each party. "Nobody kept track of how many were stolen, and they had to be returned, so they acted in a primitive manner," the expert said. Furthermore, according to Udot, ignoring the Communists when rewriting already falsified protocols is impossible, given that they finished second in the elections. "If we didn't include [the Communist Party] at all, that would be nonsense. So they added, well, a little bit. Adding the same number of votes for the Communist Party as A Just Russia—that's just a little bit," he said. Context. On the morning of September 21, after 95.18% of the votes had been processed, A Just Russia had received 4.96% of the votes and failed to clear the 5% threshold. After 96.95% of the votes had been processed, the party's result reached 5%. Experts believe that fraud helped improve the Just Russia party's results. According to Udot, there is reason to believe that the Just Russia party should not have entered the State Duma, and that the bulk of votes were taken from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and New People. Andreychuk also spoke about the sharp surge in votes for the Just Russia party. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter

Where does the news lean?

3YES1NO3neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

How did this market resolve?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that receives the second greatest number of votes on the federal party-list ballot in the federal city of Moscow in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received on the federal party-list ballot within the federal city of Moscow. If two or more parties are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, votes officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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