Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelledDecember 31
Open$6Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Hamas says it will stick to the Gaza ceasefire agreement roadmap
🇵🇸 Hamas said Friday it had agreed to a deal announced by US President Donald Trump to end the war with Israel, that includes it handing over its weapons to a Palestinian governing committee and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. • âž¡ï¸�
Live: Hamas confirms deal to end conflict with Israel - report
Where does the news lean?
1YES14NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 76% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.