Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelledJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$152Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Middle East war: "We are still operating within the framework of a ceasefire; it is absolutely essential for both sides," says former European Commissioner Thierry Breton
New information: High-level contacts continued through Thursday and Friday to solidify the ceasefire amid US efforts to de-escalate tensions following Israeli airstrikes that reached the outskirts of the capital. @daou_rimane
S&P SAYS U.S.–IRAN AND ISRAEL–HAMAS CEASEFIRES LIKELY TO REMAIN BROADLY INTACT ...
S&P Says U.S.–Iran and Israel–Hamas Ceasefires Likely to Remain Broadly Intact
S&P Says U.S.–Iran and Israel–Hamas Ceasefires Likely to Remain Broadly Intact
NOReuters99%match90¢+11%
S&P on Israel: Expect U.S.-Iran and Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreements to Broadly Hold
'The ceasefire is holding. We must move into the full implementation of the 20-point plan. It will create the foundation to reunite Gaza and the West Bank under a reformed PA.' • • Nickolay Mladenov (@nmladenov), High Representative for Gaza Board of Peace joins @Nicole_Zedeck on #MiddleEastNow
'The ceasefire is holding. We must move into the full implementation of the 20-point plan. It will create the foundation to reunite Gaza and the West Bank under a reformed PA.' • • Nickolay Mladenov, High Representative for Gaza Board of Peace joins @Nicole_Zedeck on #MiddleEastNow
An Israeli source tells Kann News: "We were surprised by Trump's decision. We received updates in the final moments when everything seemed finalized. We are committed to the ceasefire."
An Israeli source tells Kann News: "We were surprised by Trump's decision. We received updates in the final moments when everything seemed finalized. We are committed to the ceasefire."
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority quoted an Israeli official as saying: "We are committed to the ceasefire and were surprised by Trump's decision. We were informed only when all the details were ready."
Israeli Broadcasting Authority, quoting an Israeli source: We are committed to the ceasefire.
An Israeli official told me regarding the ceasefire: "We were surprised by Trump's decision. We received updates in the final moments, just when everything seemed to be finalized. We are complying with the ceasefire."
An Israeli official tells me about the ceasefire: We were surprised by Trump's decision. We received updates at the last moments when everything seemed closed. We are subject to the ceasefire.
At the conclusion of a visit to Cairo, Hamas called for the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%BA%D8%B2%D8%A9
Hamas: Meetings in Cairo addressed the completion of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
NOCGTN Europe98%match62¢+61%
Trump: Hamas has agreed to give up their weapons
Where does the news lean?
13YES21NO19neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.