2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: No$158Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Maersk Shipping Company announced that it will resume shipping services between the Middle East and the East Coast of the United States via the Suez Canal, a route that the company had abandoned years ago due to threats from the Houthi forces supported by the Islamic Republic of Yemen, as well as the entry and exit routes of the Red Sea.
Shipping companies return to the Suez Canal #Economy_Com
Maersk to resume sailing through the Suez Canal
155.1% growth rate in transit containers during the first half of 2026 #Jordan #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Maritime transport: Maersk will resume traffic through the Suez Canal
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd to resume sailings through Suez Canal for one of their services
Where does the news lean?
9YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.