Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leaderDecember 31, 2026
Open$246Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 15% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES15¢
NO85¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Reform UK retakes poll lead after Farage by-election victory
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage re-elected; "Dumpster Earl" comes in second with 30% of the vote.
Nigel Farage, leader of the British right-wing populist party, faces relentless criticism despite being re-elected in a "purification" election, which he calls a "farce."
Farage admits he discussed returning as Reform leader months earlier than previously stated
Potential Future British Leader’s Resignation Sets Off Bizarre Fight. • British populist leader Nigel Farage announced he is resigning his spot in Parliament only to run in the upcoming election for the same seat. The Reform UK leader resigned on Tuesday after the revelation of his ties to cryptocurrency entrepreneur George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster who provided him with financial and security support before his […]
Will risky resignation ploy pay off for Nigel Farage?
Live: 'A fake by-election': Tories will not stand a candidate in Clacton after Farage resignation
Chris Mason: Farage attempts to seize back the agenda after finance row
Top global economic events... A decline in chipmaker stocks weighs on Wall Street indices
Oil prices rise 2% as attacks on ships resume in the Strait of Hormuz
Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform Party, resigns
Marine Le Pen convicted of misusing European Parliament funds
#Arabic_Business
Live: Farage still faces scrutiny but has seized the agenda
Farage Resigns and Says He Will Run Again in Special Election
Live: Farage’s statement and its implications are still being digested in Britain. A couple of things are clear, however. Farage clearly felt under significant pressure over his financial affairs and concluded that this was a story that was not going away. But barring something unexpected, neither is he, as he looks well placed to win again in Clacton. Farage, the great disrupter of British politics, has tried to regain the political initiative and still hopes to shape the country’s political future. Time will tell whether his unexpected gambit works.
Farage resigns to fight by-election
An interesting and risky move by the leader of the British "Reform" party, which opposes immigration, Nigel Farage, who resigned from parliament to run again for his position and regain the public's trust. This follows parliamentary investigations into donations received by someone whose party is leading in the polls in Britain
This is the Sunday Times Insight team investigation which Nigel Farage cited in his resignation/by-election statement and which, he said, had led to a new inquiry by the parliamentary standards commissioner. • • We stand by our reporting into his undisclosed financial support from George Cottrell, which both Cottrell and Reform have already repeatedly confirmed.
LIVE: I respond to Nigel Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage resigns, triggering Clacton by-election
BREAKING Nigel Farage to quit as MP to trigger a byelection and stand again • • "Its a chance to stick two fingers up to the establishment. • • "I will fight to continue the political revolution reform has started."
NOReuters99%match44¢+93%
Reform UK’s Farage: Will Stand in by-Election
Live: Farage likely to 'come out fighting'
Where does the news lean?
31YES38NO65neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.