Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 48% on Jul 7, 2026
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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 39.5¢ to 47.5¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from bbc.co.uk.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 51.5¢ → 68¢+16.5 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
- 48.5¢ → 20.5¢-28 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
- 48.5¢ → 20.5¢-28 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
- 48.5¢ → 21.5¢-27 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
- 41.5¢ → 31¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from bbc.com
- 42¢ → 24¢-18 ptsafter a signal from thetimes.com
- 42¢ → 24¢-18 ptsafter a signal from thetimes.com
- 42¢ → 24¢-18 ptsafter a signal from thetimes.com
- 47.5¢ → 25.5¢-22 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
- 48.5¢ → 24.5¢-24 ptsafter a signal from thetimes.com
- 58.5¢ → 20.5¢-38 ptsafter a signal from thetimes.com
- 64¢ → 19¢-45 ptsafter a signal from telegraph.co.uk
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 15% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
$246K
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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.