Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: No$103Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Opposition parties always call on government to proscribe the IRGC. Governing parties always refuse. • • Labour do so in opposition but not in govt. Same with Tories. • • The obvious reason as to why it doesn't happen is the Americans hugely value our embassy staying open in Tehran.
Britain’s prime minister on Wednesday said the country’s proscription powers are not designed for a state organization after being asked about banning Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). • • "The existing prescription powers are not designed for a state organization, but we do keep this under review," Keir Starmer said in response to British MP Iain Duncan Smith’s call in parliament to proscribe the IRGC. •
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News99%match49¢-100%
BREAKING: EU's Kallas announces decision to designate Iran's IRGC a 'terrorist organisation' LIVE updates:
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match40¢-100%
That may have something to do wit the IRGC no longer existing in a couple days [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
> European nations are now fully in agreement to designate the IRGC as a terrorist group. Bravo.
Where does the news lean?
25YES4NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.