Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Democrats’ plan to impeach Trump on ‘day one’ after midterms
MARKETS BET ON HIGH IMPEACHMENT RISK FOR TRUMP • • MARKET SHOWS A 68% CHANCE THAT DONALD TRUMP WILL BE IMPEACHED BEFORE JANUARY 2028, WITH ODDS RISING STEADILY FROM AROUND 30% IN NOVEMBER. • • THE SHIFT SUGGESTS GROWING EXPECTATIONS OF POLITICAL TROUBLE AHEAD, THOUGH OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. • ...
MARKETS BET ON HIGH IMPEACHMENT RISK FOR TRUMP • • Market shows a 68% chance that Donald Trump will be impeached before January 2028, with odds rising steadily from around 30% in November. • • The shift suggests growing expectations of political trouble ahead, though outcomes remain uncertain. •
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.