Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

ResolvedOutcomes4as of

This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

20+araghchhi99%match46¢-100%
Iran has created a new maritime authority over the Strait of Hormuz and issued a map extending its control into UAE waters, saying ships must get permission.
60+araghchhi99%match83¢+20%
Iran has created a new maritime authority over the Strait of Hormuz and issued a map extending its control into UAE waters, saying ships must get permission.
40+araghchhi99%match81¢+23%
Iran has created a new maritime authority over the Strait of Hormuz and issued a map extending its control into UAE waters, saying ships must get permission.
80+araghchhi99%match92¢+9%
Iran has created a new maritime authority over the Strait of Hormuz and issued a map extending its control into UAE waters, saying ships must get permission.
20+dolfiniran99%match59¢-100%
17:42/ May 15 According to existing reports, China has explicitly stated to the United States that it accepts Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz.
60+dolfiniran99%match86¢+16%
17:42/ May 15 According to existing reports, China has explicitly stated to the United States that it accepts Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz.
40+dolfiniran99%match76¢+32%
17:42/ May 15 According to existing reports, China has explicitly stated to the United States that it accepts Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz.
80+dolfiniran99%match91¢+10%
17:42/ May 15 According to existing reports, China has explicitly stated to the United States that it accepts Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz.
20+news.sky.com99%match41¢+144%
US blockade has 'disabled four ships' to ensure compliance with Strait closure
60+news.sky.com99%match86¢+16%
US blockade has 'disabled four ships' to ensure compliance with Strait closure
40+news.sky.com99%match76¢+32%
US blockade has 'disabled four ships' to ensure compliance with Strait closure
80+news.sky.com99%match91¢+10%
US blockade has 'disabled four ships' to ensure compliance with Strait closure
20+Al Jazeera99%match59¢-100%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
60+Al Jazeera99%match86¢+16%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
40+Al Jazeera99%match76¢+32%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
80+Al Jazeera99%match91¢+10%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
20+staunovo99%match41¢+144%
Northwest Europe only received 1.64mn t of diesel and other gasoil by sea from other regions in April, the lowest monthly total in at least a decade, according to Vortexa tracking. • • The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz since the start of March has not only cut off direct shipments from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe, but created shortages in other regions that are now competing harder for other diesel supply that northwest Europe might have received. • • May is on track for a similar import volume, since only 500,000t was received in the first 10 days of the month. These volumes would put April and May each roughly 40pc down year-on-year, down by 1mn t/month, or by 30,000-35,000 t/day. • #oott
60+staunovo99%match86¢+16%
Northwest Europe only received 1.64mn t of diesel and other gasoil by sea from other regions in April, the lowest monthly total in at least a decade, according to Vortexa tracking. • • The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz since the start of March has not only cut off direct shipments from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe, but created shortages in other regions that are now competing harder for other diesel supply that northwest Europe might have received. • • May is on track for a similar import volume, since only 500,000t was received in the first 10 days of the month. These volumes would put April and May each roughly 40pc down year-on-year, down by 1mn t/month, or by 30,000-35,000 t/day. • #oott
40+staunovo99%match76¢+32%
Northwest Europe only received 1.64mn t of diesel and other gasoil by sea from other regions in April, the lowest monthly total in at least a decade, according to Vortexa tracking. • • The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz since the start of March has not only cut off direct shipments from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe, but created shortages in other regions that are now competing harder for other diesel supply that northwest Europe might have received. • • May is on track for a similar import volume, since only 500,000t was received in the first 10 days of the month. These volumes would put April and May each roughly 40pc down year-on-year, down by 1mn t/month, or by 30,000-35,000 t/day. • #oott
80+staunovo99%match91¢+10%
Northwest Europe only received 1.64mn t of diesel and other gasoil by sea from other regions in April, the lowest monthly total in at least a decade, according to Vortexa tracking. • • The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz since the start of March has not only cut off direct shipments from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe, but created shortages in other regions that are now competing harder for other diesel supply that northwest Europe might have received. • • May is on track for a similar import volume, since only 500,000t was received in the first 10 days of the month. These volumes would put April and May each roughly 40pc down year-on-year, down by 1mn t/month, or by 30,000-35,000 t/day. • #oott
20+Iranian Media99%match59¢-100%
Reuters: The vital artery of the Persian Gulf is now a weapon in Iran's hands The Strait of Hormuz, as the world's most vital energy waterway, has now become Tehran's main tool of pressure in dealing with external threats. Strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz has given Iran the ability to use the flow of oil and goods as a deterrent against pressure from the United States and its allies in the region. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
60+Iranian Media99%match86¢+16%
Reuters: The vital artery of the Persian Gulf is now a weapon in Iran's hands The Strait of Hormuz, as the world's most vital energy waterway, has now become Tehran's main tool of pressure in dealing with external threats. Strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz has given Iran the ability to use the flow of oil and goods as a deterrent against pressure from the United States and its allies in the region. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
80+Iranian Media99%match91¢+10%
Reuters: The vital artery of the Persian Gulf is now a weapon in Iran's hands The Strait of Hormuz, as the world's most vital energy waterway, has now become Tehran's main tool of pressure in dealing with external threats. Strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz has given Iran the ability to use the flow of oil and goods as a deterrent against pressure from the United States and its allies in the region. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
20+Asharq99%match41¢+144%
Chinese Foreign Minister: I call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
60+Asharq99%match86¢+16%
Chinese Foreign Minister: I call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
40+Asharq99%match76¢+32%
Chinese Foreign Minister: I call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
80+Asharq99%match91¢+10%
Chinese Foreign Minister: I call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
60+Al Araby99%match86¢+16%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
40+Al Araby99%match76¢+32%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
80+Al Araby99%match91¢+10%
Chinese Foreign Minister: We call for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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