Will gas hit __ by end of May?
Resolved13as of
This hub tracks 13 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Citi on impact to low income households right now because of $5+ gas and $7+ diesel: • • "The surge in gas prices has meant a rapidly deteriorating picture of spending power, particularly for lower-income consumers, with aggregate purchasing power (netting wages and jobs growth against inflation) dipping negative for all sub-$50K consumers in April. Versus last year middle-income consumers ($50-$70K) are paying over $90/month more for essentials, and over $75 of that increase has happened in just the last two months."
Citi on impact to low income households right now because of $5+ gas and $7+ diesel: • • "The surge in gas prices has meant a rapidly deteriorating picture of spending power, particularly for lower-income consumers, with aggregate purchasing power (netting wages and jobs growth against inflation) dipping negative for all sub-$50K consumers in April. Versus last year middle-income consumers ($50-$70K) are paying over $90/month more for essentials, and over $75 of that increase has happened in just the last two months."
Citi on impact to low income households right now because of $5+ gas and $7+ diesel: • • "The surge in gas prices has meant a rapidly deteriorating picture of spending power, particularly for lower-income consumers, with aggregate purchasing power (netting wages and jobs growth against inflation) dipping negative for all sub-$50K consumers in April. Versus last year middle-income consumers ($50-$70K) are paying over $90/month more for essentials, and over $75 of that increase has happened in just the last two months."
Citi on impact to low income households right now because of $5+ gas and $7+ diesel: • • "The surge in gas prices has meant a rapidly deteriorating picture of spending power, particularly for lower-income consumers, with aggregate purchasing power (netting wages and jobs growth against inflation) dipping negative for all sub-$50K consumers in April. Versus last year middle-income consumers ($50-$70K) are paying over $90/month more for essentials, and over $75 of that increase has happened in just the last two months."
Soaring fuel costs draw attention to higher prices at name-brand gas stations
The average price of regular gas stands at $4.50 a gallon today, according to AAA, as the war in Iran continues to push up energy prices.
The average price of regular gas stands at $4.50 a gallon today, according to AAA, as the war in Iran continues to push up energy prices.
The average price of regular gas stands at $4.50 a gallon today, according to AAA, as the war in Iran continues to push up energy prices.
The average price of regular gas stands at $4.50 a gallon today, according to AAA, as the war in Iran continues to push up energy prices.
Higher Gas Prices Are Hitting Lower-Income Americans the Hardest
Higher Gas Prices Are Hitting Lower-Income Americans the Hardest
53% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
53% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
53% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
53% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
53% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
54% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
54% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
54% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
54% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
54% chance average US gas prices top $4.70 in May.
American Automobile Association: Gasoline prices have dropped very slightly but remain about 51% higher than at the start of the war.
US Congressman: $5 Gasoline Is Not a Sign of Our Victory Marcy Captor: $5 gas and $6 diesel are not a sign of success for American families; this situation has upset the American people.
US Congressman: $5 Gasoline Is Not a Sign of Our Victory Marcy Captor: $5 gas and $6 diesel are not a sign of success for American families; this situation has upset the American people.
US Congressman: $5 Gasoline Is Not a Sign of Our Victory Marcy Kaptor: $5 gas and $6 diesel are not a sign of success for American families; this situation has upset the American people.
US Congressman: $5 Gasoline Is Not a Sign of Our Victory Marcy Kaptor: $5 gas and $6 diesel are not a sign of success for American families; this situation has upset the American people.
US Congressman: $5 Gasoline Is Not a Sign of Our Victory Marcy Kaptor: $5 gas and $6 diesel are not a sign of success for American families; this situation has upset the American people.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".