Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
How China is masking drone flights in potential Taiwan rehearsal
How China is masking drone flights in potential Taiwan rehearsal
"In terms of international law – is very provocative." Japan plans to deploy missiles near Taiwan, a move analysts say risks deepening regional tensions with China.
China is reportedly using its large fishing fleet which includes maritime militias to test blockades of waters around the South China Sea and Taiwan, 2000 boats were seen in strange holding patterns on radar recently.
Taiwan says budget delay risks 'rupture' in line of defence against China
Taiwan President: China is actively trying to prevent Taiwan from buying arms.
China to support 'reunification forces' in Taiwan, go after 'separatists'
China steps up dangerous air encounters near Taiwan-ft
China to resume travel for Shanghai residents to Kinmen, Matsu islands
China to resume travel for Shanghai residents to Kinmen, Matsu islands
The likeliest scenario for 2026 is not a full-fledged conflict, but an increase in China’s political, economic and military pressure against Taiwan
Taiwan, Japan voice concern over Chinese military movements
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.