When will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government?
Resolved3as of
This hub tracks 3 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Companies with Mythos access urge joint defence of infrastructure
Anthropic Investigating Report Claiming Unauthorized Access to Claude Mythos Preview- Bloomberg News
*ANTHROPIC INVESTIGATING REPORT OF UNAUTHORIZED MYTHOS ACCESS ...
*ANTHROPIC INVESTIGATING REPORT OF UNAUTHORIZED MYTHOS ACCESS
*USER GROUP GAINED ACCESS TO MYTHOS ON DAY IT WAS UNVEILED
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose.
An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice.
“Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak.
General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.