When will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
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This hub tracks 3 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Pentagon tech chief: No Anthropic resolution in sight
Pentagon tech chief: No Anthropic resolution in sight
Google expands Pentagon’s access to its AI after Anthropic’s refusal
Trump Signals Possible Pentagon Deal With Anthropic After White House Talks on AI Use. • President Donald Trump said that the artificial intelligence firm Anthropic is "shaping up" for a "possible" deal to allow the Pentagon to use the company's AI technology.
I also wonder if this will be useful in Anthropic's ongoing court battle with Pentagon ...
President Trump said “it’s possible” Anthropic and the Pentagon could reach a deal eventually.
Trump says Anthropic is "shaping up" and a deal is "possible" for Department of Defense use.
Trump says Anthropic is "shaping up" and a deal is "possible" for Department of Defense use.
Trump says Anthropic is shaping up and a deal is 'possible' for Department of Defense use
Supply Chain What? The NSA Is Using Anthropic's Mythos According To Report
NSA spies are reportedly using Anthropic’s Mythos, despite Pentagon feud
*ANTHROPIC CEO ARRIVES TO WHITE HOUSE FOR TALKS: REUTERS • • the "leftwing nut job" meeting the "dictator"
US administration and Anthropics seek to restore relations; CEO visits White House
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is set to meet White House chief of staff Susie Wiles today despite the companies ongoing disput with the Pentagon - Axios
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will meet today. This meeting follows the Pentagon labeling the company as a "supply chain risk," even as some executive agencies seek to use Anthropic's new Claude model, Mythos. - Axios
Anthropic CEO to meet White House chief of staff amid Pentagon AI dispute, Axios reports • •
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is scheduled to meet with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles on Friday, signaling a potential resolution in the artificial intelligence startup's dispute with the Pentagon. • • More Here →
Anthropic CEO to meet White House chief of staff amid Pentagon AI dispute, Axios reports
NEW in @axios AM, @JimVandeHei • • @AnthropicAI CEO @DarioAmodei is scheduled to meet at the White House today w chief of staff Susie Wiles • • It's a breakthrough in his effort to resolve his bitter fight w the Pentagon • • Insiders cite the power of Mythos
NEW in @axios AM, w @JimVandeHei • • @AnthropicAI CEO @DarioAmodei is scheduled to meet at the White House today w chief of staff Susie Wiles • • It's a breakthrough in his effort to resolve his bitter fight w the Pentagon • • Insiders see the power of Mythos
Scoop: @DarioAmodei heads to WH for AI peace talks…Hard to Pentagon blacklisting/refusing a tech others in Trump admin want/use…
What is this event about?
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.