Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Xiaomi MiMo V2 Pro is a #2 in China and #8 globally agentic reasoning model! Has 1M token context window and is over 1T parameter with 42B active parameter • • The Chinese models are killing it, I hope they am post the weights
Tencent Joins China’s AI Agent Race With ‘Top-Secret’ WeChat Project
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.