Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?
Resolved30as of
This hub tracks 30 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Zohran Mamdani100%
Kevin Warsh100%
Shehbaz Sharif100%
Dan Caine100%
Todd Blanche100%
Keir Starmer100%
King Charles III100%
Michael Dell100%
Delcy Rodriguez100%
Gianni Infantino100%
Jesus100%
Kash Patel100%
Barack Obama100%
Elon Musk100%
Allah0%
Kid Rock0%
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Live: Trump congratulates King Charles III on getting ‘Democrats to stand’ during speech to Congress: ‘I couldn't believe it’
Trump congratulates King Charles on his speech saying “he got the democrats to stand,” which Trump was never able to do
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual.
Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.