Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?
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Market pricing makes Keir Starmer the favorite at 64% across 27 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Barack Obama100%
Tucker Carlson100%
Candace Owens100%
Joe Biden100%
Jerome Powell100%
Nicolás Maduro100%
Jimmy Kimmel100%
Norah O'Donnell100%
Keir Starmer64%
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
US President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he supported Israel maintaining “freedom of action” against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon, CNN reported, citing an Israeli official. • • The official said Netanyahu made the point during a Saturday call and that Trump “reiterated his support for this principle.” • • The official said the US was keeping Israel informed about talks with Iran on a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and later negotiations on a final agreement. • • Trump also said he would not sign a final deal without the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program and removal of all enriched uranium from Iranian territory, according to the official.
A senior Israel political source told CBS News early Sunday that they have "made it clear to the Americans" that if a deal is reached with Iran, Israel must still maintain "our operational freedom of action in all sectors, including in Lebanon, to protect our citizens and soldiers and prevent threats from developing against us." • • The source added that "this is acceptable to Trump." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr. Trump spoke on Saturday night and Netanyahu "emphasized that Israel will maintain freedom of action against threats in all arenas, including Lebanon." •
Trump comments on Rubio's suit, which is similar to Maduro's outfit when he was arrested A photo of Rubio wearing a tracksuit on board Air Force One en route to China sparked widespread controversy on social media. The outfit caught the attention of followers, especially after it was compared to a similar suit worn by ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro following his arrest earlier this year. In a notable comment, a CNN reporter who wore a similar tracksuit mentioned that Trump said he thought Rubio looked "very stylish" in that outfit, adding that he might not choose to wear it himself, but he thought it looked good on him, describing him as "distinguished". The image went viral after users noticed the similarity between the two suits, raising questions about whether it was just a coincidence or if it held a specific meaning. The issue became a widespread topic of discussion online after the White House communications director dubbed the look "Nike Tech Venezuela". Rubio, for his part, denied that there was any message behind his choice of the suit, stressing that it was just a "comfortable piece that he likes to wear" and "does not carry any political or symbolic connotations." The event
Trump comments on Rubio's suit, which is similar to Maduro's outfit when he was arrested. A photo of Rubio wearing a tracksuit on board Air Force One en route to China sparked widespread controversy on social media. The outfit caught the attention of followers, especially after it was compared to a similar suit worn by ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro following his arrest earlier this year. In a notable comment, a CNN reporter who wore a similar tracksuit mentioned that Trump said he thought Rubio looked "very stylish" in that outfit, adding that he might not choose to wear it himself, but he thought it looked good on him, describing him as "distinguished". The image went viral after users noticed the similarity between the two suits, raising questions about whether it was just a coincidence or if it held a specific meaning. The issue became a widespread topic of discussion online after the White House communications director dubbed the look "Nike Tech Venezuela". Rubio, for his part, denied that there was any message behind his choice of the suit, stressing that it was just a "comfortable piece that he likes to wear" and "does not carry any political or symbolic connotations."
Did Trump Almost Gag on His Champagne? DJT Sets Aside His Personal Alcohol Abstinence Rule to Toast Xi Jinping. • During a state banquet in Beijing, President Trump made a rare gesture by toasting Chinese President Xi Jinping, despite his personal abstinence from alcohol, to foster US-China relations.
We are delighted that His Holiness Pope Leo XIV has confirmed his trip to France. This visit next September will be an honor for our country, a joy for Catholics and a great moment of hope for all.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian thanked Pope Leo for what he called his “moral, logical and fair” stance on the Iran war, saying US and Israeli attacks were not only against Iran but against international law and “human values.” • • In a message published by IRNA, Pezeshkian said Iran had acted “within the framework of legitimate defense” by targeting the interests and positions of those he called aggressors. • • He said the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz was caused by attacks on Iran, the use of Persian Gulf states’ territory and airspace against Iran, and the US maritime blockade. • • Pezeshkian said Iran remained committed to diplomacy, citing Pakistan’s mediation and talks in Islamabad, and urged the international community to take a “realistic and fair” approach against what he called Washington’s illegal demands and dangerous policies. • • His message came after President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the pope over his stance on the war. • • “Will someone please tell Pope Leo that Iran has killed at least 42,000 innocent, completely unarmed protesters in the last two months, and that for Iran to have a Nuclear Bomb is absolutely unacceptable,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
MARCO RUBIO: • • JD VANCE IS A VERY GOOD FRIEND OF MINE. IF JD RUNS FOR PRESIDENT, I THINK HE'D BE A PHENOMENAL CANDIDATE. • • I'VE SAID PUBLICLY, AND I'LL SAY IT AGAIN, I'LL BE THE FIRST PERSON TO SIGN UP AND SUPPORT HIM. I THINK JD WOULD DO GREAT. ...
Iranian President Thanks Pope for Moral Stance Against War • • Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has sent a message to Pope Leo XIV thanking him for his ethical and logical position on recent military aggressions against Iran.
Pope Leo XIV Condemns War on Iran as Unjust, Calls for Global Peace Efforts • • Pope Leo XIV has declared the ongoing unjust war on Iran, stating it is failing to resolve conflicts and only fueling global hatred, while urging citizens worldwide to pressure leaders for peace.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit the United States in the fall at Trump's request, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, CNN reports. He called Xi's meeting with the US president in Beijing historic and noted progress in trade. [in reply to: Trump wrapped up his visit to China after two days of talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, NBC News reports. The US president said that the parties had concluded a "fantastic" trade agreement. In particular, he said that China would buy oil from the United States, and then added that the agreement would include all energy resources, of which the US has "unlimited" quantities. In addition, according to Trump, during the talks, Xi said that he would like to conclude a deal on the war with Iran and offered his help. He also said that the leaders have "very similar views" on the issue of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.]
World Catholic leader urges Americans to contact Congress and pressure lawmakers to end Iran war Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute: Pope Leo XIV considered the Iran War unjust. He said this war "will not solve any problems" and will only spread more hatred. He further urged Americans to contact Congress and pressure lawmakers to end the war and work towards peace. @isna94
Pope stresses injustice of US military aggression against Iran Pope Leo XIV, the leader of the world's Catholics, said in a statement emphasizing the need for the United States and Iran to return to the negotiating table: "Aggression against Iran is not just." This war is spreading and will bring nothing to the world except economic and energy crises. @iribnews
Pope stresses injustice of US military aggression against Iran Pope Leo XIV, the leader of the world's Catholics, said in a statement emphasizing the need for the United States and Iran to return to the negotiating table that aggression against Iran is unjust. He also emphasized: "This war is spreading and will bring nothing to the world except a crisis in the economic and energy sectors." News link Follow IRNA news on Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus | ETA | Jahan @IRNA_1313
Pope urges Americans to contact Congress about Iran war Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute: Pope Leo XIV considered the Iran War unjust and said that this war "will not solve any problems" and will only spread more hatred. He further urged Americans to contact Congress and pressure lawmakers to end the war and work towards peace. tasnimnews.ir/3591680 @TasnimNews
TWO WEEKS AWAY: • • Pam Bondi is interviewed by House Oversight Cmte about Epstein files handling
President Donald Trump said Friday he raised the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping of releasing a prominent detained pastor and imprisoned Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai, and quoted Xi as saying he'd consider the pastor but that Lai's case is a "tough one." MORE:
Xi Insulted Trump To His Face And In Front Of Cameras During Pivotal Meeting In China: Gordon Chang. • On "Forbes Newsroom," U.S.-China relations expert Gordon Chang shared his response to President Trump's visit to China to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
On Air Force One,@POTUS told reporters he refused to directly answer #China President Xi Jinping when asked if the U.S. would defend #Taiwan if China attacked it. • • “That question was asked to me today,” Trump said as they flew back to the United States from a two-day summit in Beijing. “That question was asked to me today by President Xi. I said I don’t talk about that,” he said. With @CNBC colleague @_DanMangan
On Air Force One, @POTUS told reporters he refused to directly answer #China President Xi Jinping when asked if the U.S. would defend #Taiwan if China attacked it. • • “That question was asked to me today,” Trump said as they flew back to the United States from a two-day summit in Beijing. “That question was asked to me today by President Xi. I said I don’t talk about that,” he said.
NEW: BEIJING — Though U.S. President Donald Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping “discussed almost everything,” their superpower summit here this week produced no sweeping agreements and concluded with just a handful of measurable outcomes. • •
US President Donald Trump: I went to the place where President Xi Jinping is staying, which is very rare... People have never seen anything like it before.
US President Donald Trump: I went to the place where President Xi Jinping is staying, which is very rare... People have never seen anything like it before.
US President Donald Trump says UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces political trouble over immigration and energy, urging him to open up the North Sea and stop relying on wind power.
US President Donald Trump says he and President Xi Jinping reached a “good understanding” on Taiwan and Iran, adding that Xi does not want to see a fight for independence or a war over Taiwan.
#Update: Trump claims Xi Jinping asked whether the US would send troops to defend Taiwan, but he did not answer Xi's question. He said Xi Jinping does not want war over the Taiwan issue. Trump also stated that he had not discussed tariffs with Xi Jinping, and that China had not purchased H200 chips. Furthermore, he said he would reconsider oil sanctions against China.
President Trump commented on Secretary of State Marco Rubio wearing a "MADURO" Nike tech outfit: • • "I thought he looked very good in the outfit. I don't know if I'd do it, but I thought he looked very good." • • "I think he's outstanding."
NEW: President Donald Trump told reporters as he departed China that President Xi Jinping is considering releasing Pastor Ezra Jen — but things aren't sounding as good for Jimmy Lai. • • "I think he's giving very serious consideration to the pastor," Trump says of Pastor Ezra Jen. "He said he's giving very serious consideration to him." • • "I discussed Jimmy," POTUS said. "It's a tougher one. I did bring it up. It's a tough one. For him it's a tougher one. He told me, and I don't want to mislead anybody. He said Jimmy Lai is a tough one for him. Went through a lot, right or wrong, went through a lot. So he told me that would be a tough one. He said he's going to strongly consider the pastor."
President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump had a private meeting at Zhongnanhai in Beijing on Friday. • • Noting that Trump's visit was a historic and landmark one, Xi said the two sides set the new vision of building a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability. • • Trump said Xi is his old friend and he holds great respect for Xi, noting the relationship between the United States and China is very important and will surely get better and better. • • #China #UnitedStates #XiJinping #DonaldTrump #Beijing
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping is seriously considering releasing a detained pastor in China. However, Trump noted that Xi described the case of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai as "a tough one." • • More Here →
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.