Who will meet with Iran by May 31?
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Vice President JD Vance says lead US negotiators are still “making progress” in peace talks with Iran.
US Vice President JD Vance announced that Washington believes that "progress" has been made in negotiations with Iran, but it is not yet clear whether this progress will be enough to cross Donald Trump's red line. Mr. Vance told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he had spoken with Jared Kushner and Steve Whittaker about Iran that morning and had also been in contact with Arab officials. “The big question is whether this progress is enough to meet the president’s red line,” he added. According to the US Vice President, Trump's red line is for the United States to ensure that "adequate mechanisms" are in place to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. Vance's statements come after Trump had previously described Iran's new proposal in the negotiations as "unacceptable." @VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
Per @JenniferJJacobs, according to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, he recently spoke with White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Envoy Jared Kushner on talks with Iran and said that talks are still progressing, but added that U.S. President Donald J. Trump “needs to feel confident that we've put a number of protections in place such that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
"Obviously, these are very sensitive negotiations," said J.D. Vance, the US vice president at the White House, about the Washington-Tehran talks. "I spoke on the phone for a considerable amount of time on Wednesday morning with Jared Kushner and Steve Whittaker, and I also spoke with a number of our friends in the Arab world. I think we are making progress."
Vance: There is progress in negotiations with Iran
URGENT: Vance says US is engaged in very "aggressive" diplomatic process with Iran
Vance 'in meeting with Qatari PM' over Iran negotiations
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.