Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?

ResolvedOutcomes29as of

This hub tracks 29 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

xAI0%

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

xAIelonmusk99%match0¢
Grok Build 0.1 is available on Vercel AI Gateway. • • xAI's beta coding model in Grok Build CLI. • • 𝚖𝚘𝚍𝚎𝚕: '𝚡𝚊𝚒/𝚐𝚛𝚘𝚔-𝚋𝚞𝚒𝚕𝚍-𝟶.𝟷' • •
[#Anthropic poachs OpenAI founding member#] #Anthropic rumored to launch as early as October# On May 20th, Beijing time, Andrej Karpathy, a founding member of OpenAI and former AI director at Tesla, announced that he has joined the large-scale model company Anthropic. He stated that the next few years will be a crucial formative period for the cutting-edge field of LLM (Large Language Modeling), and he is very pleased to join the team and return to the front lines of research and development. He remains passionate about education and plans to resume related work when the time is right. Prior to this, Kapacsi briefly devoted his efforts to Eureka Labs, the AI education startup he founded. It has been reported that Capasi officially joined Anthropic's pre-training team this week, reporting to the team leader, Nick Joseph, who also comes from OpenAI. Anthropic's spokesperson confirmed that Capasi will establish a brand-new R&D group within the company, with the core task of conducting a recursive frontier exploration: leveraging the capabilities of Anthropic's flagship large model, Claude, to accelerate pre-training research on cutting-edge models. Currently, Anthropic, led by Dario Amodei, is in a period of rapid expansion. Market sources indicate that Anthropic plans to pursue an IPO in the second half of 2026, with a potential listing as early as October. Its overall valuation is approaching $1 trillion. The addition of this key figure is seen as a crucial endorsement, projecting technological confidence to the capital market and enterprise clients, and demonstrating the company's core R&D strength to maintain its position among the top tier in the long term. [Web link]
Anthropiccnbc.com99%match92¢+9%
1. Anthropic
OpenAINYT Reporter98%match3¢-100%
openai has been sucking a lot of the oxygen out of the room (at least for me) • • but shit is mega bad vibes over at meta right now • •
MetaNYT Reporter99%match100¢
openai has been sucking a lot of the oxygen out of the room (at least for me) • • but shit is mega bad vibes over at meta right now • •
xAIelonmusk98%match0¢
yeah that's pretty good • • xAI might be able to cook with Cursor data + 10T model
Amazondbws.io99%match0¢
How Amazon Went From an AI Also-Ran to a Real Contender -- WSJ
Anthropictechinasia.com99%match5¢-100%
XAI launches new coding agent Grok Build to rival Anthropic. • XAI's Grok Build is currently in early testing for paying subscribers as an AI coding agent.
xAItechinasia.com99%match0¢
XAI launches new coding agent Grok Build to rival Anthropic. • XAI's Grok Build is currently in early testing for paying subscribers as an AI coding agent.
Anthropicchinesewsj99%match95¢+5%
Anthropic has achieved great success among programmers and enterprise customers, reshaping the competitive landscape of AI at its own pace. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that recent investment intentions have valued Anthropic at over $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's valuation.
OpenAIarena98%match99¢+1%
The top 5 labs in Text Arena rankings by category show that frontier models have distinct strengths and tradeoffs. • • #1 @AnthropicAI, Claude Opus 4.7 • - The most consistently dominant model overall, leading top-tier across nearly every major category. • • #2 @GoogleDeepMind, Gemini 3.1 Pro • - Well-rounded, with a notable edge in Creative Writing, ranked below Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 High in Expert • • #3 @AIatMeta, Muse Spark • - Particularly strong in Overall and Coding, though it’s lagging behind in Expert tasks, Math, and Longer Query performance. • • #4 @OpenAI, GPT-5.5 High • - One of the most balanced models overall, staying competitive with the top two across most categories, with especially strong performance in Expert and Math. • • #5 @xAI, Grok 4.20 • - A more specialized profile, standing out primarily in Creative Writing and Hard Prompts, while lagging behind in Expert tasks.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Related events