Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?

ResolvedOutcomes8as of

This hub tracks 8 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Valentina, who was injured in the Russian attack on Kramatorsk, said she heard "two terrible explosions." At least five dead and twelve wounded are currently known. The rescue operation is ongoing. [in reply to: At least five dead and twelve wounded in Kramatorsk are already known, reported the head of the OVA Filashkin. Photo: Public News / Oleksandr Magula]
KramatorskUkrainian Media99%match95¢+5%
The number of injured in Kramatorsk has increased to 12, 5 people have died, — State Emergency Service 8 cars and an educational institution were burning at the scene of the attack. Apartment buildings and cars were damaged. [in reply to: Five people killed in Kramatorsk: Zelenskyy reacted to the Russian attack A rescue operation is underway in the city. The occupiers struck directly at the center of Kramatorsk, at people. Unfortunately, the number of victims may increase. All services are currently working on the scene: rescuers, medics - providing assistance to people.]
KramatorskUkrainian Media99%match95¢+5%
5 people died in Kramatorsk, rescue operation continues - Zelensky The death toll from the strike on Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region has risen to 5 people, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "They hit right in the city center, at people. As of now, at least five people are known to have been injured and five killed. My sincere condolences to the family and friends. Unfortunately, the number of victims may increase," the president wrote in the Telegram channel.... #kramatorsk #victims #shelling #zelensky @interfax_uk
KramatorskUkrainian Media99%match95¢+5%
Five people killed in Kramatorsk: Zelenskyy responded to the Russian attack A rescue operation is underway in the city. The occupiers struck directly at the center of Kramatorsk, at people. Unfortunately, the number of victims may increase. All services are currently working on the scene: rescuers, medics - providing assistance to people.
Kramatorskcgtneurope99%match95¢+5%
Zelenskyy: 'A rescue operation is ongoing in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, at the site of a Russian airstrike. The attack hit right in the city center, targeting civilians. As of now, at least five people are known to be injured and five killed. Our sincere condolences to the families and loved ones. Unfortunately, the number of victims may increase. All services are currently working at the scene: rescuers and medics are providing assistance to people.'
KramatorskSky News Arabia99%match95¢+5%
Donetsk region governor: Three people killed and five others injured in a Russian attack on Kramatorsk
KramatorskUkrainian Media99%match91¢+10%
French Ambassador visits evacuation point in Kramatorsk – UNHCR French Ambassador to Ukraine Gael Veissiere visited the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, on Tuesday, together with staff from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR). "In the frontline city of Kramatorsk, a delegation visited an evacuation point, supporting people fleeing frontline communities... UNHCR and its partners continue to provide emergency assistance," the UNHCR office in Ukraine reported on the X social network on Tuesday. ...
SlovianskUkrainian Media99%match90¢+11%
Three people injured in airstrikes on Sloviansk, — MVA Last night, the Russians hit the city twice with FAB aerial bombs. According to the head of the MVA, Vadim Lyakh, both times the central districts were hit. An educational institution was destroyed. Currently, three victims are known: the woman was hospitalized, and her husband and adult son received outpatient care.
KharkivUkrainian Media99%match96¢+4%
Russians attacked Kharkiv: 3 injured known, — Terekhov There is also information that several private houses were damaged as a result of the attack - windows were broken, roofs were damaged, the Kharkiv mayor reported.
SlovianskUkrainian Media99%match9¢-100%
In Sloviansk, evacuation of children from dangerous areas is being accelerated - MVA There are 34 children remaining in dangerous areas of the city of Sloviansk (Donetsk region), law enforcement officers are working to accelerate the process of their evacuation, said the head of the city's military administration, Vadym Lyakh. "I held a meeting with law enforcement officers on the issue of evacuating families with children. Today, 34 children live in the areas of Sloviansk where such evacuation is mandatory. At the end of March, there were 96 of them. We discussed ways to speed up the process, because the situation is becoming increasingly dangerous," he wrote on his Facebook page. ...
Slovianskcgtneurope99%match90¢+11%
Donetsk governor: 'The number of injured in Sloviansk has risen to 5. • • This information is as of 15:30. • • One of the injured requires further medical assistance outside the region, while the remaining four received outpatient care. • • Reminder, earlier today, the Russians dropped a one-and-a-half-tonne aerial bomb in the city center, completely destroying a children's sports facility, which was a local historical monument. • • 39 multi-story buildings, 2 administrative buildings, and 15 cars were damaged. • • The cleanup of the consequences of this strike is ongoing.'
KharkivNews99%match4¢-100%
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian troops are advancing and expanding their security zone in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
FWD from Social Donbas: At least 10 people were injured in Kramatorsk, the Russian army struck the city center with a FAB-250 with an UMPK module, the regional prosecutor's office reported. As a result of the shelling, four women, aged 29, 31, 43, 47, and six men, aged 38, 47, 56, 61, 64, and 89, received mine-explosive, craniocerebral injuries, and shrapnel wounds. "Two of the injured are in serious condition," the report says. Photo: Public Donbas/Artem Stepanov
Explosions were heard in Sumy, Suspilny correspondents report.
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft on Zaporizhia.
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in the north of Sumy region
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in Zaporizhia
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in Sumy region
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft on the Sumy region.
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in Zaporizhia.
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
UAV to Sumy from the north!
ZaporizhiaUkrainian Media99%match93¢+8%
The number of people injured in the Russian attack on Zaporizhia has increased to 5, - OVA
One person died as a result of a massive combined attack by drones and missiles on Zaporizhia, reported the head of the OVA Fedorov. Six apartment buildings and two private houses, a shop, non-residential buildings, and an industrial infrastructure facility were damaged. [in reply to: The number of people injured in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 3, the head of the OVA Fedorov reported.]
In Zaporizhia, there are fires and destruction as a result of the Russian attack, the head of the OVA Fedorov reported. A commercial facility was damaged. [in reply to: As a result of the Russian attack on Zaporizhia, one person was injured and a fire broke out, the head of the OVA Fedorov reported.]
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
Cabs to Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
KAB to Sumy region
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match7¢-100%
KABs to the south of Sumy region, north of Kharkiv region!
Slovianskcgtneurope99%match21¢-100%
Reports in Ukraine: 'In Sloviansk, a mandatory evacuation of children has been announced, but not throughout the entire city'
Cab launches in Zaporizhia

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Related events