Which bills will become law in 2026?
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Market pricing makes Export-control chip security the favorite at 34% across 14 tracked outcomes, as of .
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$2.50 Coin14%
DEFIANCE Act13%
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The MATCH Act (Multilateral Coordination of Hardware Controls Act, S. 4281) is a bipartisan bill introduced in April 2026 by Senators Pete Ricketts (Republican) and Andy Kim (Democrat). Its core objective is to close loopholes in U.S. semiconductor export controls, requiring allies to follow suit with U.S. restrictions and prohibit the sale of advanced chip manufacturing equipment (such as critical lithography and etching tools) to adversaries like China. Currently, U.S. controls on equipment are stricter than those of allies like the Netherlands and Japan, creating a competitive disadvantage for U.S. companies, yet still failing to effectively prevent China from acquiring advanced tools. The bill promotes a unified multilateral control framework, rather than relying solely on a unilateral U.S. list, and addresses the issue of shell companies circumventing the Entity List. A corresponding version (H.R. 8170) already exists in the House of Representatives. This bill is expected to be included in the Senate's 2026 fiscal year NDAA manager amendment, advancing alongside the AI Overwatch Act and the Chip Security Act, increasing its chances of passage through a "must-pass" defense bill. Congress has passed the NDAA for over 60 consecutive years, and its inclusion almost guarantees a vote. The driving forces include alliances such as the AI Policy Network, which emphasize that this is crucial to maintaining U.S. leadership in semiconductors and AI. If passed, it would strengthen the blockade against China's advanced manufacturing processes and reduce arbitrage opportunities arising from policy discrepancies with allies.
Congress has brushed off GOP legislation to put Trump’s name or likeness on: • • Mt Rushmore • $500 bill • Dulles Airport • Flag Day holiday • • So instead, Trump Admin is touting his name on airplane boarding passes
One thing that’s notably absent from this list: FISA Section 702 reauthorization • • With the House gone, FISA wouldn’t reach Trump’s desk until September anyway • • Senators also note that the telecom companies are still providing data to the intel community for the time being
Spoke with Rep. Fry earlier this year as he touted his Trump-aligned SHOWER Act, which rolled back Biden-era changes to showerheads. • • (The bill passed the House and is now waiting action in the Senate.)
Dems continuing to press Clayton, Trump’s DNI nominee, on the 2020 election. • • Remember that Clayton’s confirmation is supposed to unlock Dem votes for FISA Section 702, which lapsed over a month ago....
Hakeem Jeffries says that there have been "no direct conversations" about FISA between the Trump administration and members of the House Dem leadership over the last several weeks. • • Democrats have said they will oppose FISA reauthorization as long as Bill Pulte is running DNI. • • Jeffries adds that it "remains to be seen" whether Jay Clayton -- who has a Senate hearing this week -- would be an "independent director of national intelligence."
Trump makes history as the first sitting US president to have an airport named after him, joining a list of airports that have immortalized presidents and prominent American figures through official legislation.
Trump makes history as the first sitting US president to have an airport named after him, joining a list of airports that have immortalized presidents and prominent American figures through official legislation.
US housing bill set to become law despite Trump snub
Housing Bill Trump Set To Become Law
WASHINGTON (AP) — Trump will let bipartisan housing affordability bill become law without his signature in protest over GOP voter ID law
Housing bill watch: Just spoke with Trump, I asked about the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, if he will sign it, and he said he is putting out a statement "in two minutes"
Not on POTUS’ schedule: any plan for action on the Bipartisan 21st Century Road to Housing Act which becomes law TONIGHT at midnight, even if he never signs it.
Airport renamed after Donald Trump
"Trump Airport" is born, its code name is "DJT," the same as his initials... His second son praises his father, saying "no one has contributed more than him."
Rep. Mike Flood just highlighted the bipartisan nature of the housing bill during his town hall in Bellevue, Nebraska. • • “Next week, it’s likely to be a public law," Flood said.
News: House Republican leadership has posted the text of their bipartisan amendment to the Senate’s 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act • • Here’s some of the reworked institutional investor prohibition language, CBDC prohibition and community bank reforms
Majority Leader Steve Scalise in a interview with @politico confirms this is House GOP leaders’ current plan to amend the stalled housing bill and send it back to the Senate • • Scalise says he talked to the White House about it last night • • “They know we’re working to get them a really strong housing bill to the President's desk as quickly as possible, and that's what they want too,” Scalise said. “The President is going to have a bill that he can sign that's going to help lower housing costs, that everybody can celebrate. We’re almost there.” • • Scalise said French Hill is working to get Dem and GOP votes for a big vote — when I asked if they could clear a suspension vote with enough Dems • • Scalise added the proposed changes Hill has been working on will “make it an even better bill.” • • On Senate Republicans’ concerns — Scalise says “you send a really good bill over to the Senate, then I have no doubt they'll take it up.” • • House GOP leaders are still working through CBDC with hardliners, build to rent and institutional investor, and several other pieces they need to land before next week, per sources • •
Rep. Flood: “America’s housing crisis needs pro-growth solutions that expand supply, cut red tape, and make the dream of owning a home more achievable. I’m committed to working with Chairman Hill to deliver a final product that meets those goals and is signed by President Trump.”
Trump calls on Congress to pass Senate’s housing bill
Trump calls on Congress to pass Senate’s housing bill
News: President Trump calls on House to pass the Senate’s housing bill - as the House is actively negotiating a new amended version • • House wants to move on the amended version as soon as possible…and this does not help their timeline at all
NEW: Speaker Mike Johnson is raising the possibility of a "bipartisan" path forward on a FISA extension - after a GOP rebellion blew up his own plan last week • • Johnson is planning to meet with BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) and DARIN LAHOOD (R-Ill.) later today as the two work on a plan w/ Dems, as @politico reported • • Among the options GOP leaders are discussing: If the Senate can advance a 3-year extension, with policy changes, the House could potentially pass it with a majority of Republicans and some Dems, per sources • • It's also possible Johnson could put that measure on the House floor under an expedited procedure that does not require prior adoption of a party-line rule, but would need a two-thirds majority to pass it. Deadline is April 30 so Rs need to work fast. • • That would still be tricky with House GOP hardliners - who have very specific demands for new guardrails on warrentless surveillance and more policy additions as part of any reauthorization. • • NO. 3 House Dem Pete Aguilar raised caution - saying of Johnson: “His confidence meter was always pretty high, and then he put a bill on the floor that had zero consensus among his caucus, and looked like the disaster that it was after midnight." • • w/ @riley_rogerson • •
Rand says if Senate leadership wants a time agreement to speed up a 702 reauthorization, he wants a vote on an amendment including requiring a warrant for U.S. person queries • • Said he believes others (ie Wyden) also wants an amendment vote • • TBD what can get through the house
The US House of Representatives passed a bill early Friday morning to extend a law on government spy powers for two weeks, after Republicans pushed for a longer five-year extension, which was not approved. • •
House Rejects Compromise Surveillance Bill, Forcing Short-Term FISA Extension -- WSJ
A bill to reauthorize the expiring warrantless surveillance law stumbles in the House.
Speaker Mike Johnson punts on FISA after GOP hardliners and others killed off his 5 year extension plan • • Just after 2 am Friday, he conceded to a short-term extension thru April 30 • • House GOP leaders canceled remaining votes for the week. They’ll return to this same crisis next week. • • via @politico
Republican leaders tried to pass a five-year extension of surveillance authority in the dead of night. • • The bill does not enhance privacy protection. • • It risks expanding the ability of the Trump administration to spy on the American people. • • Unacceptable. • • That’s why we just defeated the bill on the House Floor.
Speaker Mike Johnson is moving to pass a five year FISA extension with some reforms OVERNIGHT — after weeks of Trump and Johnson pushing for a clean extension only • • 2:15am final passage scheduled. Key House GOP hardliners have NOT signed off yet. Some minimal warrant language + more. Text here > • • w/ @Reporter_Mia @jordainc • • via @politico
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.