Which bills will become law in 2026?Export-control chip security
Open$349as of
Odds now
The market prices a 34% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES34¢
NO66¢
as of
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.”
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Which bills will become law in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.