Which bills will become law in 2026?FISA Section 702 reauthorization
Open$102Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES11¢
NO89¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Hakeem Jeffries says that there have been "no direct conversations" about FISA between the Trump administration and members of the House Dem leadership over the last several weeks. • • Democrats have said they will oppose FISA reauthorization as long as Bill Pulte is running DNI. • • Jeffries adds that it "remains to be seen" whether Jay Clayton -- who has a Senate hearing this week -- would be an "independent director of national intelligence."
The US House of Representatives passed a bill early Friday morning to extend a law on government spy powers for two weeks, after Republicans pushed for a longer five-year extension, which was not approved. • •
House Rejects Compromise Surveillance Bill, Forcing Short-Term FISA Extension -- WSJ
A bill to reauthorize the expiring warrantless surveillance law stumbles in the House.
Speaker Mike Johnson punts on FISA after GOP hardliners and others killed off his 5 year extension plan • • Just after 2 am Friday, he conceded to a short-term extension thru April 30 • • House GOP leaders canceled remaining votes for the week. They’ll return to this same crisis next week. • • via @politico
Republican leaders tried to pass a five-year extension of surveillance authority in the dead of night. • • The bill does not enhance privacy protection. • • It risks expanding the ability of the Trump administration to spy on the American people. • • Unacceptable. • • That’s why we just defeated the bill on the House Floor.
Speaker Mike Johnson is moving to pass a five year FISA extension with some reforms OVERNIGHT — after weeks of Trump and Johnson pushing for a clean extension only • • 2:15am final passage scheduled. Key House GOP hardliners have NOT signed off yet. Some minimal warrant language + more. Text here > • • w/ @Reporter_Mia @jordainc • • via @politico
Where does the news lean?
3YES9NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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