What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
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Market pricing makes ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) the favorite at 12% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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After granting diplomacy 60 days, the proposed agreement's terms link ending the war to a ceasefire on all fronts, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and international oversight of highly enriched uranium.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ODDS COLLAPSE • • Prediction markets are turning sharply more skeptical on a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. • • Kalshi now prices the odds at just 13% by March 2027, 16% by January 2028, and 15% by January 2029 — all falling sharply in recent weeks. •
The US framework agreement with Iran is expiring: What has it achieved?
The main issue between Iran and the US in the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" is not "opening the Strait of Hormuz", "lifting the naval blockade of Iran", "liberating resources" or "ending the war on all fronts"; rather, it is the issues related to the country's "nuclear sector". The Americans want a "long-term suspension of enrichment in Iran" - perhaps permanently - and "taking 400 kilos of uranium", and Iran says it is not possible! "Heavy and conventional bombing of the remaining Iranian nuclear facilities" (the facilities on Mount Kalang) and "hitting the country's energy infrastructure" are unlikely to bring about a change in Tehran's policies.
The main issue between Iran and the US in the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" is not "opening the Strait of Hormuz", "lifting the naval blockade of Iran", "liberating resources" or "ending the war on all fronts"; rather, it is the issues related to the country's "nuclear sector". The Americans want a "long-term suspension of enrichment in Iran" - perhaps permanently - and "taking 400 kilos of uranium", and Iran says it is not possible! "Heavy and conventional bombing of the remaining Iranian nuclear facilities" (the facilities on Mount Kalang) and "hitting the country's energy infrastructure" are unlikely to bring about a change in Tehran's policies.
US plans ground operation in Iran to extract uranium The Pentagon is preparing a plan for an extremely complex special operation - to seize or destroy enriched uranium at Iran's nuclear facilities. Possible targets are Fordow, Isfahan and the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, where Iran could transport hundreds of centrifuges. Isfahan is considered the most difficult target - mines were laid there in advance in case of a raid. According to the IAEA, Iran has more than 9 tons of enriched uranium at its disposal. "The most likely way to get rid of Iran's nuclear material is a military operation, because negotiations are not moving anywhere quickly," said CSIS expert Joseph Rogers. And former US National Security Council official Richard Goldberg warned: the main question is whether it will be possible to safely withdraw all the forces involved. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
The New York Post reported that the United States is considering a plan to seize and remove enriched uranium from facilities inside Iran, an operation that, according to a source familiar with the matter, would require thousands of ground troops and extensive security measures. Iran International's Erdoğan Roozbeh reports
Live: No deal with Iran unless US obtains enriched uranium, senior US official says
US Central Command: Our forces remain ready to hold Iran accountable if it fails to comply with the terms of the agreement.
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