U.S. x Iran Military Engagement
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This hub tracks 2 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
BREAKING: Trump has been briefed on 'potential military options' for Iran, according to ABC News report.
RT @BarakRavid: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine told President Trump & top officials that a military campaign against Iran could…
The U.S. has built up its military presence in the Middle East, amid growing concerns about the risk of a military conflict with Iran.
Iran has sought for years to build closer military ties with China and Russia, but its friends are proving reluctant to step forward as the regime faces the most acute U.S. threat in decades
U.S. military aircraft were seen on the tarmac at Lajes Air Base in Portugal as Washington increases its military presence amid escalating tensions with Iran.
The military options are the latest signs that the United States is preparing for a serious conflict with Iran should diplomatic efforts fail.
RT @tom_bike: US military build-up around Iran spotted TODAY in Jordan Muwaffaq Salti AB at 31.8206, 36.7756 Satellite image sh…
[Replying to @unusual_whales] To follow Iran updates, subscribe to Unusual Whales. You can get breaking news as it happens. See more: > BREAKING: "Trump has moved closer to a major war with Iran," per Axios
STOCKS DIPPED IN ASIA WHILE OIL HIT ITS HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST AS US-IRAN TENSIONS ROSE, WITH DONALD TRUMP PUSHING FOR A DEAL AND THE US MILITARY DEPLOYING FORCES TO THE REGION, WHILE INVESTORS WEIGHED PRIVATE CREDIT FUND RISKS AND UPCOMING US ECONOMIC DATA.
Iran's foreign minister will meet IAEA chief ahead of nuclear talks. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
> Irans foreign ministry says the US has moved toward accepting Iran's right to enrich uranium. I doubt this.
Online traders seem to be growing more and more confident that a diplomatic resolution will result from the current tensions in the Middle East between Iran and the United States, with the chance of a nuclear deal before the end of 2026 up to 44%, as the two countries prepare to…
Online traders seem to be growing more and more confident that a diplomatic resolution will result from the current tensions in the Middle East between Iran and the United States, with the chance of a nuclear deal before the end of 2026 up to 44%, as the two countries prepare to…
Iran has stated that an agreement which delivers economic benefits to both sides, including potential energy, mining and aircraft deals, is on the table in ongoing nuclear talks that are expected to continue this week with the United States. The Deputy Director for Economic…
Iran has stated that an agreement which delivers economic benefits to both sides, including potential energy, mining and aircraft deals, is on the table in ongoing nuclear talks that are expected to continue this week with the United States. The Deputy Director for Economic…
Will the US strike Iran by the end of June?
Polymarket sees this at a 45 percent chance despite the rhetoric on negotiation, it is clear Iran will not make key concessions on ballistic missile stockpiles. What do you think?
Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the U.S. that delivers economic benefits for both sides-Reuters
Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the U.S. that delivers economic benefits for both sides-Reuters
Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US
Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US
The US military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Trump orders an attack, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries
BREAKING: US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations, per Reuters
BREAKING: US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations, per Reuters
This is why you don't promise military action before doing some basic homework: "Officials discovered that the US could not conduct a major offensive as quickly as they had hoped without real risks to American forces, support from allies, and regional stability."…
The Massive American military airlift operation to the Middle East is nearing completion continuing today.
Only a handful of flights now left before the transfer of air defense equipment to multiple U.S. bases in the Middle East is complete.
The US and Iran each struck a positive tone about the start of diplomatic talks, though analysts remain skeptical that the engagement will be enough to head off US airstrikes.
Iran formally rebuffed a primary U.S. demand to end all domestic uranium enrichment on Monday, instead adopting a dual-track posture that balances cautious diplomacy with heightened military readiness.
Iran insists on right to enrichment, ready for confidence-building
The continuation of certain sanctions and some activities in the military sphere, well, create doubt regarding the degree of seriousness and the readiness of the other side for genuine negotiations.
United States and Iran tested the waters of diplomacy on Friday during mediated talks in Oman's capital.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.
Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.