US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Tel Aviv is wary of an Iranian agreement that doesn't dismantle its nuclear program... Sources reveal
Will US-Iran have a permanent ceasefire deal by the end of the month? • Polymarket sees this at a 73 percent chance of occurring, with apparent positive sings today. • What do you think?w
Will US-Iran have a permanent ceasefire deal by the end of the month? • Polymarket sees this at a 73 percent chance of occurring, with apparent positive sings today. • What do you think?
Trump says a deal between the US and Iran is "very likely" to be reached.
US-IRAN DEAL ODDS JUMP SHARPLY • • KALSHI TRADERS NOW PRICE ABOUT A 48% CHANCE OF A U.S.–IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL BEFORE AUGUST, UP SHARPLY FROM ROUGHLY THE LOW-30% RANGE JUST DAYS AGO, REFLECTING RAPIDLY RISING DIPLOMATIC OPTIMISM. • ...
US-IRAN DEAL ODDS JUMP SHARPLY • • Kalshi traders now price about a 48% chance of a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal before August, up sharply from roughly the low-30% range just days ago, reflecting rapidly rising diplomatic optimism. •
*US PROPOSAL: FULL NUCLEAR DEAL WITH IRAN TO BE NEGOTIATED LATER
"US humiliated by Iran"
Live: US ‘close to agreement with Iran’
US believes Iran agreement close - report
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.