US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
It has been revealed that the grandson of Cuban leader Raúl Castro took an unusual step last week to communicate directly with US President Trump: he commissioned a wealthy Havana businessman to attempt to bypass regular diplomatic channels and personally deliver a letter to the White House. The White House has not responded to questions about whether it received the letter.
In an unusual attempt to get President Trump’s ear, the grandson of Cuban leader Raúl Castro tapped a wealthy Havana entrepreneur to try to personally deliver a letter to the White House last week outside of regular diplomatic channels
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.