Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
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20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE: DURING THE CEASEFIRE REGIME, 30,383 CASES OF CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS BY UKRAINE WERE RECORDED
The Armed Forces of Ukraine violated the ceasefire 30,383 times during its duration, reported the Russian Defense Ministry.
Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of violating U.S.-brokered ceasefire
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaking ceasefire
Russia claims Ukraine has violated the ceasefire agreement again.
BREAKING: Russia says that Ukraine has violated the ceasefire, adding that it continues to observe the ceasefire, Reuters reports citing IFAX.
THERE IS A 37% CHANCE UKRAINE SIGNS A PEACE DEAL WITH RUSSIA BEFORE 2027, PER POLYMARKET: ...
The United States sees signs of a "tipping point" in negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine, US President's special representative Witkoff said on CNBC. "The process is moving forward. I think the trilateral meeting will be postponed to next week. We are positive and will remain optimistic. This is a war that must end," said Witkoff.
Next round of Ukraine, Russia peace talks likely next week, Trump envoy Witkoff says
US envoy Witkoff calls Ukraine, Russia talks productive
Kremlin says peace prospects not improved by Europe, Ukraine changes to US proposals
WITKOFF: RUSSIA REMAINS FULLY COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING PEACE IN UKRAINE
WITKOFF: RUSSIA REMAINS FULLY COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING PEACE IN UKRAINE
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.