U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

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Market pricing makes 3.5–3.9% the favorite at 23% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .

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3.5–3.9%almayadeennews95%match18¢+28%
Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9% in July, compared to 2.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven by higher gas and electricity prices and the impact of a war with Iran on global energy markets. This follows the biggest summer increase in energy bills for British households in four years, adding to the pressure on Andy Burnham's government. Amid concerns about entrenched inflation, the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates, while warning that a worst-case scenario, should the war escalate, could push inflation to 4.5% by mid-2027. Meanwhile, core inflation remained at 2.6%, while services inflation slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%, coinciding with a slowdown in wage growth and a drop in job vacancies to their lowest level in five years. #AlMayadeen
2.5–2.9%almayadeennews96%match23¢-9%
Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9% in July, compared to 2.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven by higher gas and electricity prices and the impact of a war with Iran on global energy markets. This follows the biggest summer increase in energy bills for British households in four years, adding to the pressure on Andy Burnham's government. Amid concerns about entrenched inflation, the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates, while warning that a worst-case scenario, should the war escalate, could push inflation to 4.5% by mid-2027. Meanwhile, core inflation remained at 2.6%, while services inflation slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%, coinciding with a slowdown in wage growth and a drop in job vacancies to their lowest level in five years. #AlMayadeen
2.0–2.4%almayadeennews95%match91¢-2%
Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9% in July, compared to 2.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven by higher gas and electricity prices and the impact of a war with Iran on global energy markets. This follows the biggest summer increase in energy bills for British households in four years, adding to the pressure on Andy Burnham's government. Amid concerns about entrenched inflation, the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates, while warning that a worst-case scenario, should the war escalate, could push inflation to 4.5% by mid-2027. Meanwhile, core inflation remained at 2.6%, while services inflation slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%, coinciding with a slowdown in wage growth and a drop in job vacancies to their lowest level in five years. #AlMayadeen
4.5%+almayadeennews95%match8¢
Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9% in July, compared to 2.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven by higher gas and electricity prices and the impact of a war with Iran on global energy markets. This follows the biggest summer increase in energy bills for British households in four years, adding to the pressure on Andy Burnham's government. Amid concerns about entrenched inflation, the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates, while warning that a worst-case scenario, should the war escalate, could push inflation to 4.5% by mid-2027. Meanwhile, core inflation remained at 2.6%, while services inflation slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%, coinciding with a slowdown in wage growth and a drop in job vacancies to their lowest level in five years. #AlMayadeen
1.5–1.9%almayadeennews95%match98¢-3%
Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9% in July, compared to 2.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics, driven by higher gas and electricity prices and the impact of a war with Iran on global energy markets. This follows the biggest summer increase in energy bills for British households in four years, adding to the pressure on Andy Burnham's government. Amid concerns about entrenched inflation, the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates, while warning that a worst-case scenario, should the war escalate, could push inflation to 4.5% by mid-2027. Meanwhile, core inflation remained at 2.6%, while services inflation slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%, coinciding with a slowdown in wage growth and a drop in job vacancies to their lowest level in five years. #AlMayadeen
2.0–2.4%livesquawk94%match91¢-2%
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026. • • Read the full article
1.5–1.9%Reuters97%match98¢-3%
Reuters Poll-UK Inflation to Average 3.1% and Economic Growth 1.1% in 2026 (vs 3.1%, 1.0% in July Poll)
1.0–1.4%Reuters97%match96¢+1%
Reuters Poll-UK Inflation to Average 3.1% and Economic Growth 1.1% in 2026 (vs 3.1%, 1.0% in July Poll)
<1.0%Reuters97%match100¢
Reuters Poll-UK Inflation to Average 3.1% and Economic Growth 1.1% in 2026 (vs 3.1%, 1.0% in July Poll)
2.5–2.9%News94%match28¢-25%
*BOE: UK INFLATION PEAKS AT 3.2% IN 4Q '26 IN CENTRAL PROJECTION
3.5–3.9%Reuters93%match18¢+28%
BoE Central Forecast Shows CPI in Q1 2027 at 3.2%, 1.7% in Q1 2028, 1.9% in Q1 2029
3.5–3.9%Reuters94%match82¢-6%
BoE: CPI Could Reach 3.2% in Q4 2026 (June Minutes: a Little Above 3.25% in Q4 2026)
<1.0%alarabiya_bn91%match100¢
Al Arabiya correspondent Karina Kamel: UK's annual consumer price index fell to 2.6%, exceeding expectations Costs of transport, food, projects, clothing, and footwear declined in the inflation basket Positive readings ease pressure on the Bank of England and push it towards holding interest rates steady for the rest of the year #MarketPulse #AlArabiyaBusiness
2.5–2.9%bfmtv.com92%match20¢+5%
In the United Kingdom, inflation slowed to 2.6% in June, which is higher than expected thanks to lower fuel prices.
2.5–2.9%News92%match20¢+5%
*UK JUNE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%
2.0–2.4%News92%match98¢-9%
*UK JUNE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%
2.5–2.9%News92%match20¢+5%
*UK JUNE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.6% Y/Y; EST. 2.7%
2.0–2.4%Reuters99%match87¢+2%
Reuters Poll-UK Inflation to Average 3.2% and Economic Growth 0.8% in 2026 (vs 3.2%, 0.7% in April Poll)
4.5%+Reuters99%match61¢+51%
Reuters Poll-UK Inflation to Average 3.2% and Economic Growth 0.8% in 2026 (vs 3.2%, 0.7% in April Poll)
1.0–1.4%Reuters99%match95¢+2%
Reuters Poll-UK Inflation to Average 3.2% and Economic Growth 0.8% in 2026 (vs 3.2%, 0.7% in April Poll)
2.5–2.9%dbws.io98%match78¢+1%
UK services firms report sharpest rise in costs since late 2022
4.5%+dbws.io99%match39¢-79%
UK services firms report sharpest rise in costs since late 2022
1.0–1.4%marketnews_feed98%match88¢+10%
U.K. TO SEE SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH, HIGHER INFLATION DUE TO MIDEAST CONFLICT-WSJ ...
2.5–2.9%redboxwire99%match7¢+200%
U.K. to See Slowdown in Growth, Higher Inflation Due to Mideast Conflict-WSJ
1.0–1.4%redboxwire99%match88¢+10%
U.K. to See Slowdown in Growth, Higher Inflation Due to Mideast Conflict-WSJ
2.5–2.9%firstsquawk99%match7¢+200%
U.K. to See Slowdown in Growth, Higher Inflation Due to Mideast Conflict-WSJ
1.0–1.4%firstsquawk99%match88¢+10%
U.K. to See Slowdown in Growth, Higher Inflation Due to Mideast Conflict-WSJ
3.5–3.9%aljazeera.com98%match18¢+28%
Worst fall for UK retail sales in over 40 years due to Iran war inflation fears
2.0–2.4%aljazeera.com98%match94¢-5%
Worst fall for UK retail sales in over 40 years due to Iran war inflation fears
1.0–1.4%aljazeera.com99%match94¢+3%
Worst fall for UK retail sales in over 40 years due to Iran war inflation fears

What is this event about?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

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