U.K. Annual Inflation 20262.5–2.9%
Open$21Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 21% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES21¢
NO79¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
In the United Kingdom, inflation slowed to 2.6% in June, which is higher than expected thanks to lower fuel prices.
U.K. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March as the Iran war sparked a sharp increase in fuel prices, preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Wednesday. • • The latest data is the first hard evidence of the Iran war’s impact on consumer prices in the U.K. • • Fuel prices saw their largest increase for over three years, the ONS’ chief economist said. • • Click here to read more:
Live: UK inflation jumps to 3.3%
TD Securities and the Bank of England both see UK inflation hitting 3.3%, with energy as the main driver. Core CPI expected to hold at 3.2%. The peak could reach high threes. Second round effects are the key question for the Bank of England, though weaker pricing power and a widening output gap may limit the pass-through.
POLL: UK INFLATION TO AVERAGE 3.2% AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 0.7% IN 2026 (VS 3.1%, 1.0% IN MARCH POLL) ...
Where does the news lean?
8YES11NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
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