Thailand strikes Cambodia
Resolved2as of
This hub tracks 2 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Cambodia has stated that it will not engage in bilateral negotiations with Thailand on maritime issues.
Thai and Cambodian leaders agree to "de-escalate" border tensions in talks, mediated by the Philippines, the chair of ASEAN.
Thailand and Cambodia agree to extend hosting of ceasefire monitors for three months at summit meeting.
The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia will meet in the Philippines for rare talks following deadly fighting between the neighbours last year. • • More Here →
Thai PM: Philippines Will Be Present at Meeting with Cambodia in Cebu
Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Expresses regret over Thailand's withdrawal from the maritime memorandum with Cambodia.
Cambodia asks France to provide historical evidence to help settle Thai border dispute
Cambodia asks France to provide historical evidence to help settle Thai border dispute
US to provide $45 million to help implement Cambodian-Thai accords
A senior US envoy urges Cambodia and Thailand to preserve a fragile ceasefire along their disputed border, pledging funding to support the truce
Cambodia’s deputy prime minister says his country wants to “lower the temperature” in its dispute with Thailand to protect a fragile ceasefire
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.