Texas Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Ken Paxton (R) the favorite at 51% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
.@SenJkennedy tells me Senate Republicans don't have plans to spend on behalf of Ken Paxton in toss-up TX race: • • KENNEDY: "There's no sense bubble wrapping it, we've got a race in Texas... [Paxton] is going to have to point out the deficiencies of Mr. Talarico... you can't win an election by saying the other guy's worse than me. Money is an issue," Kennedy said. "We in the Senate don't have the money budgeted for Texas. We need help from the President. The President says he has $850M in his campaign accounts. That's a lot of jack." @SundayBriefFNC
Senate Races To Watch: Talarico Leads Paxton By 3 Points In New Texas Poll. • Trump has a 38% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
#TXSEN: The pro-James Talarico super PAC Lone Star Rising releases its first general election ads. They’ll run statewide on streaming and platforms, part of an initial seven-figure buy. • - Spot 1: • - Spot 2:
Texas governor assures Republicans: Paxton will win
New: Cruz's super PAC is launching a more than $1.7 million ad campaign today to boost Ken Paxton • • Paxton needs the backup. The Texas Senate race is now rated a "toss-up," and Democratic nominee James Talarico keeps raking in the cash •
James Talarico now favored to flip Texas’ U.S. Senate seat Democratic for first time since 1988 — Polymarket
James Talarico now favored to flip Texas’ U.S. Senate seat Democratic for first time since 1988 — Polymarket
In the DDHQ Forecast, the Texas Senate race is a Toss Up, with both candidates having a virtually even chance to win. • • James Talarico has gained in recent weeks; as recently as July 23, Paxton had a 60% probability to win.
In the DDHQ Forecast, the Texas Senate race is a Toss Up, with both candidates having a virtually even chance to win. • • James Talarico has gained in recent weeks; as recently as July 23, Paxton had a 60% probability to win.
Texas Pulse/Texas A&M poll: • • U.S. Senate • James Talarico 47% • Ken Paxton 43% • • Governor • Greg Abbott 46% • Gina Hinojosa 45%
Texas Pulse/Texas A&M poll: • • U.S. Senate • James Talarico 47% • Ken Paxton 43% • • Governor • Greg Abbott 46% • Gina Hinojosa 45%
'Fake' moderate Talarico's Texas surge tests Paxton in fight to hold crucial GOP Senate seat
Live: Jasmine Crocket skeptical of Senate candidate James Talarico’s prospects to win Texas
Three consecutive polls show James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. • • The latest: Texas Southern U. has Talarico up 47%-45%. • • In the past week, a Fox poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.
Three consecutive polls show James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. • • The latest: Texas Southern U. has Talarico up 47%-45%. • • In the past week, a Fox poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.
Poll: Talarico has slim lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race
Poll: Talarico has slim lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race
New #TXSEN poll from @TexasSouthern: • • James Talarico (D) 47 • Ken Paxton (R) 45 • Ted Brown (L) 2 • Unsure 6 • • (Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center; July 27-30; 1,200 LVs; +/-2.83%)
New #TXSEN poll from @TexasSouthern: • • James Talarico (D) 47 • Ken Paxton (R) 45 • Ted Brown (L) 2 • Unsure 6 • • (Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center; July 27-30; 1,200 LVs; +/-2.83%)
Very possible that Senate Majority PAC, the Schumer-backed super PAC, spends for James Talarico. • • People have left conversations with SMP recently with the impression that they are preparing to spend big in Texas against Paxton.
Talarico notches 3-point lead over Paxton in new poll as GOP fears grows over Texas Senate race
Talarico currently leads Paxton about 48%-45% in our polling average. • • Decision Desk HQ's forecast views this race as a toss-up despite Texas's red lean. • • Read more in Decision Desk HQ's weekly memo: •
Talarico currently leads Paxton about 48%-45% in our polling average. • • Decision Desk HQ's forecast views this race as a toss-up despite Texas's red lean. • • Read more in Decision Desk HQ's weekly memo: •
Talarico is polling better vs. Paxton than Beto O'Rourke (D) ever did in his close 2018 defeat vs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). #TXSen • • From April through July 2018, Cruz led every poll vs O'Rourke. But Paxton has only led in 3 of 12 surveys conducted in the same period of 2026.
Talarico is polling better vs. Paxton than Beto O'Rourke (D) ever did in his close 2018 defeat vs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). #TXSen • • From April through July 2018, Cruz led every poll vs O'Rourke. But Paxton has only led in 3 of 12 surveys conducted in the same period of 2026.
NEW: Paxton’s campaign shares reaction with me to new Fox polling showing Talarico with a 3 point lead. • • “The only poll that matters is November 3rd. When Texans get a look at James Talarico's actual record including endorsing reparations, voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures, attacking oil and gas jobs, and backing the largest tax increase in Texas history, there is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save him. Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream."- Nick Maddux
New Texas poll: Fox News • • SENATE RACE • James Talarico (D) 51% • Ken Paxton (R) 48% • • GOVERNOR RACE • Greg Abbott (R) 50% • Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% • •
New Texas poll: Fox News • • SENATE RACE • James Talarico (D) 51% • Ken Paxton (R) 48% • • GOVERNOR RACE • Greg Abbott (R) 50% • Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% • •
#NEW: A new Fox poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race. • • Talarico: 51% • Paxton: 48% • • According to Fox poll, most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
#NEW: A new Fox poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race. • • Talarico: 51% • Paxton: 48% • • According to Fox poll, most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.