Texas Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes James Talarico (D) the favorite at 63% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Democrat Talarico leads Republican Paxton in another Texas Senate poll
New University of Houston poll of #TXSEN in Harris County: • • James Talarico (D) 58 (+22) • Ken Paxton (R) 36 • Ted Brown (L) 2 • Unsure 4 • • (Oct. 3-8; 2,750 LVs; +/-1.87%) • • The county, which is Texas’ most populous and home to Houston, was Harris +6 in 2024, O’Rourke +10 in 2022, Biden +13 in 2020 and O'Rourke +17 in 2018.
New University of Houston poll of #TXSEN in Harris County: • • James Talarico (D) 58 (+22) • Ken Paxton (R) 36 • Ted Brown (L) 2 • Unsure 4 • • (Oct. 3-8; 2,750 LVs; +/-1.87%) • • The county, which is Texas’ most populous and home to Houston, was Harris +6 in 2024, O’Rourke +10 in 2022, Biden +13 in 2020 and O'Rourke +17 in 2018.
New: Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico keeps getting the better of national Republicans. • • “I wouldn’t even say they had egg on their face — it was more like ‘s----’ on their face,” a national Republican strategist said. • •
Live: James Talarico’s Absence From the Trail Rattles the Texas Senate Race
James Talarico’s Absence From the Trail Rattles the Texas Senate Race
65% chance Democrats win the Texas Senate race — Polymarket • •
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Texas Senate • James Talarico: 56% • Ken Paxton: 44% • • Talarico has expanded his lead to 2.7 points in the DDHQ polling average. • • If Democrats flip Texas, their chance of controlling the Senate is 76%.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Texas Senate • James Talarico: 56% • Ken Paxton: 44% • • Talarico has expanded his lead to 2.7 points in the DDHQ polling average. • • If Democrats flip Texas, their chance of controlling the Senate is 76%.
65% chance Democrats win the Texas Senate race — Polymarket • •
Live: A New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday found James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, holding a six-point lead over Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, even as Paxton’s allies have dumped tens of millions of dollars into ads bashing him. A closer look reveals those numbers have much to do with his strength among Hispanics and independents.
As new Fox News polling shows Democrat James Talarico with a razor-thin 2-point edge over Republican Ken Paxton among likely Texas voters, President Trump is acknowledging concerns about the race. • • “We are worried about Michigan. We are worried about Texas. We are worried about a few states,” Trump said at a rally in Oklahoma. • • He’ll be back in Texas Wednesday heading to San Antonio for a rally with Paxton.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said Republican Ken Paxton will win the Texas Senate race, while acknowledging that the contest is “a real fight” and “basically tied.” • • Cruz told @tonydokoupil that he is campaigning to boost Republican turnout, arguing that Democrats are motivated to vote against President Trump.
Democratic Senate nominees are now leading or tied in five reliably Republican states, according to a new NYT/Siena poll. • • Kansas • 45% Adam Hamilton (D) • 45% Roger Marshall (R) • • Texas • 51% James Talarico (D) • 45% Ken Paxton (R) • • Alaska • 50% Mary Peltola (D) • 43% Dan Sullivan (R) • • Ohio • 49% Sherrod Brown (D) • 46% Jon Husted (R) • • Iowa • 48% Ashley Hinson (R) • 47% Josh Turek (D)
Democratic Senate nominees are now leading or tied in five reliably Republican states, according to a new NYT/Siena poll. • • Kansas • 45% Adam Hamilton (D) • 45% Roger Marshall (R) • • Texas • 51% James Talarico (D) • 45% Ken Paxton (R) • • Alaska • 50% Mary Peltola (D) • 43% Dan Sullivan (R) • • Ohio • 49% Sherrod Brown (D) • 46% Jon Husted (R) • • Iowa • 48% Ashley Hinson (R) • 47% Josh Turek (D)
Texas PAC has added in Texas and is up to $126M in support of Ken Paxton -- $28.5M in future reservations, per @AdImpact_Pol . • • Talarico for Senate is up to $64.8M and $2.08M in future reservations.
Talarico leads Paxton by 2 points in tightening Texas Senate race: Survey State Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) is leading state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas) by just two points among likely voters, according to a new Fox News poll. The Democrat’s lead is within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error and shows a tight race in the Lone Star State. 51 percent of likely voters support…
Talarico leads Paxton by 2 points in tightening Texas Senate race: Survey State Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) is leading state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas) by just two points among likely voters, according to a new Fox News poll. The Democrat’s lead is within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error and shows a tight race in the Lone Star State. 51 percent of likely voters support…
A rare Republican internal poll is seeing the light of day in #TXSEN, via Ken Paxton’s campaign:
Our most recent Texas Senate polling average shows Democrat James Talarico with a lead of 4.1% over Republican Ken Paxton. In the DDHQ Forecast, Talarico is a 57% favorite to win. • • Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Our most recent Texas Senate polling average shows Democrat James Talarico with a lead of 4.1% over Republican Ken Paxton. In the DDHQ Forecast, Talarico is a 57% favorite to win. • • Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
NEWS — • • Senate Democrats are officially spending in Texas. • • Senate Majority PAC is opening up the money spigot for James Talarico in Texas, after months of conspicuously not doing so. • • With @lmcgaughy • •
The Texas money pit: Republicans are spending big trying to save Ken Paxton’s Senate bid
Talarico up four points in new Texas poll Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is ahead of his Republican opponent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for an upper chamber seat in the Lone Star State by about 4 points, according to a new poll. In the BIG DATA POLL survey, 43.6 percent of respondents said they would back Talarico if…
Talarico up four points in new Texas poll Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is ahead of his Republican opponent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for an upper chamber seat in the Lone Star State by about 4 points, according to a new poll. In the BIG DATA POLL survey, 43.6 percent of respondents said they would back Talarico if…
Live: One of the big questions of the Senate election in Texas has been James Talarico’s ability to win over Black voters after the divisive Democratic primary in which he defeated a popular Black representative, Jasmine Crockett. I went out to talk to Black voters twice in Houston over the last month, and found voters had warmed to him since the primary.
James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 polls. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke led in just *1* through September. Talarico is up 47%-44% over Ken Paxton (R) in DDHQ's poll average. • • @birenbomb from @TexasTribune joined DDHQ's @geoffreyvs on why that trend is "impossible to ignore." #TXSen
James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 polls. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke led in just *1* through September. Talarico is up 47%-44% over Ken Paxton (R) in DDHQ's poll average. • • @birenbomb from @TexasTribune joined DDHQ's @geoffreyvs on why that trend is "impossible to ignore." #TXSen
Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3 percent saying…
Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3 percent saying…
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.