Texas Senate Election WinnerKen Paxton (R)
Open$527Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 51% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES51¢
NO50¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
New Texas poll: Fox News • • SENATE RACE • James Talarico (D) 51% • Ken Paxton (R) 48% • • GOVERNOR RACE • Greg Abbott (R) 50% • Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% • •
Texas Public Opinion Research poll: U.S. Senate • • James Talarico 45% • Ken Paxton 40% • • It marks Talarico's "largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period."
56% chance Republican Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate race. • •
NOThe Wall Street Journal99%match23¢+113%
Two progressives competing in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate are raising Texas Democrats’ hope that the party could win a statewide race next year
YESBreaking91198%match77¢-34%
SPEAKER JOHNSON: "I am absolutely delighted that Jasmine Crockett is running for Senate in Texas. I think it's one of the greatest things to happen to the Republican Party in a long, long time. She is the face of the Democratic Party, she and Mamdani. Good luck with that."
YESAxios98%match75¢-32%
Dems face a Tea Party-style revolt in Texas and beyond in 2026 races
NOCNN Breaking News99%match25¢+96%
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launches a bid for US Senate in hopes of flipping the Texas seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn
NOCGTN America99%match25¢+96%
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launches bid for U.S. Senate in Texas, looking to flip a Republican-held seat
YESPOLITICO99%match73¢-30%
Colin Allred drops out of Texas Senate race
YESReuters98%match73¢-30%
The US Supreme Court reinstated a Texas electoral map that could flip as many as five currently Democratic-held House seats to Republicans
Where does the news lean?
11YES25NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 74% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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See all outcomes for Texas Senate Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.