Texas Senate Election WinnerKen Paxton (R)
Open$1.9Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 37% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES37¢
NO64¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Democratic Senate nominees are now leading or tied in five reliably Republican states, according to a new NYT/Siena poll. • • Kansas • 45% Adam Hamilton (D) • 45% Roger Marshall (R) • • Texas • 51% James Talarico (D) • 45% Ken Paxton (R) • • Alaska • 50% Mary Peltola (D) • 43% Dan Sullivan (R) • • Ohio • 49% Sherrod Brown (D) • 46% Jon Husted (R) • • Iowa • 48% Ashley Hinson (R) • 47% Josh Turek (D)
The Senate Leadership Fund is jumping into #TXSEN, launching an effort in the state through Election Day starting with an eight-figure ad buy for Ken Paxton, a source familiar confirms. The spending will come through a new entity, Texas PAC. • • First reported by @FoxNews.
Trump’s super PAC pours $10M into Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate race against James Talarico
Trump-linked MAGA Inc pours $10M into Ken Paxton's Texas Senate race against James Talarico
NEW: Trump’s MAGA Inc. is dropping $10 million into the Texas Senate race- its first major spending move of the 2026 midterms • • It comes after weeks of speculation over when Trump would start spending some of the massive amount of money his political operation has on hand and his first big investment in Texas, where Ken Paxton is locked in a tight race with Democrat James Talarico.
TODAY: A new FEC filing today shows MAGA Inc, the super PAC connected to President Trump, is spending $10 Million on TV and digital advertising in the Texas Senate race, where Republican Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico. • • This is the first significant midterm spending from the group and comes just a day after President Trump said he planned to spend big to boost Republican candidates this election cycle, “I’m going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us.” MAGA Inc has at least $400 million in funds available to spend, according to filings, though the President estimated it at a close to a billion.
New Texas poll: Fox News • • SENATE RACE • James Talarico (D) 51% • Ken Paxton (R) 48% • • GOVERNOR RACE • Greg Abbott (R) 50% • Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% • •
Texas Public Opinion Research poll: U.S. Senate • • James Talarico 45% • Ken Paxton 40% • • It marks Talarico's "largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period."
56% chance Republican Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate race. • •
YESBreaking91198%match77¢-52%
SPEAKER JOHNSON: "I am absolutely delighted that Jasmine Crockett is running for Senate in Texas. I think it's one of the greatest things to happen to the Republican Party in a long, long time. She is the face of the Democratic Party, she and Mamdani. Good luck with that."
NOCNN Breaking News99%match25¢+152%
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launches a bid for US Senate in hopes of flipping the Texas seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn
NOCGTN America99%match25¢+152%
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launches bid for U.S. Senate in Texas, looking to flip a Republican-held seat
Where does the news lean?
29YES58NO29neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 83% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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