Texas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D)
Open$1.8Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 63% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES63¢
NO38¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
James Talarico’s Absence From the Trail Rattles the Texas Senate Race
Democratic Senate nominees are now leading or tied in five reliably Republican states, according to a new NYT/Siena poll. • • Kansas • 45% Adam Hamilton (D) • 45% Roger Marshall (R) • • Texas • 51% James Talarico (D) • 45% Ken Paxton (R) • • Alaska • 50% Mary Peltola (D) • 43% Dan Sullivan (R) • • Ohio • 49% Sherrod Brown (D) • 46% Jon Husted (R) • • Iowa • 48% Ashley Hinson (R) • 47% Josh Turek (D)
NEWS — • • Senate Democrats are officially spending in Texas. • • Senate Majority PAC is opening up the money spigot for James Talarico in Texas, after months of conspicuously not doing so. • • With @lmcgaughy • •
Texas Democrat James Talarico Making Republicans Nervous -- WSJ
Three consecutive polls show James Talarico narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. • • The latest: Texas Southern U. has Talarico up 47%-45%. • • In the past week, a Fox poll had Talarico up 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.
Talarico currently leads Paxton about 48%-45% in our polling average. • • Decision Desk HQ's forecast views this race as a toss-up despite Texas's red lean. • • Read more in Decision Desk HQ's weekly memo: •
Talarico is polling better vs. Paxton than Beto O'Rourke (D) ever did in his close 2018 defeat vs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). #TXSen • • From April through July 2018, Cruz led every poll vs O'Rourke. But Paxton has only led in 3 of 12 surveys conducted in the same period of 2026.
NEW: Paxton’s campaign shares reaction with me to new Fox polling showing Talarico with a 3 point lead. • • “The only poll that matters is November 3rd. When Texans get a look at James Talarico's actual record including endorsing reparations, voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures, attacking oil and gas jobs, and backing the largest tax increase in Texas history, there is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save him. Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream."- Nick Maddux
New Texas poll: Fox News • • SENATE RACE • James Talarico (D) 51% • Ken Paxton (R) 48% • • GOVERNOR RACE • Greg Abbott (R) 50% • Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% • •
#NEW: A new Fox poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race. • • Talarico: 51% • Paxton: 48% • • According to Fox poll, most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
Democrat James Talarico Leads in Texas Senate Race — Fox News Poll
Texas Public Opinion Research poll: U.S. Senate • • James Talarico 45% • Ken Paxton 40% • • It marks Talarico's "largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period."
NOBreaking91198%match77¢-52%
SPEAKER JOHNSON: "I am absolutely delighted that Jasmine Crockett is running for Senate in Texas. I think it's one of the greatest things to happen to the Republican Party in a long, long time. She is the face of the Democratic Party, she and Mamdani. Good luck with that."
YESCNN Breaking News99%match27¢+133%
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launches a bid for US Senate in hopes of flipping the Texas seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn
YESCGTN America99%match27¢+133%
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launches bid for U.S. Senate in Texas, looking to flip a Republican-held seat
Where does the news lean?
54YES16NO24neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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