South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner
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This hub tracks 21 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Mark Lynch endorses Ralph Norman as congressman heads into runoff against Darline Graham
Inbox: Mark Lynch endorses Ralph Norman in the #SCSEN primary runoff. Lynch, the former primary challenger to Lindsey Graham, finished fifth with 6% of the vote in yesterday's primary.
Ralph Norman releases his first TV ad of the #SCSEN special primary runoff • • "You shouldn’t have to guess where your next senator stands," he says in the spot. "With me, you already know." • •
Wednesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 8.12.26: Darline Graham pushed into S.C. runoff
Live: Sen Rick Scott and Rep Nancy Mace cheer Rep Ralph Norman's advance to special primary runoff contest
Sen. Darline Graham Heads to GOP Runoff After Falling Shy of Majority - WSJ
Live: Darline Graham pays homage to late brother as she advances to runoff to fill his seat
NEW: Sen. Darline Graham thanks President Trump for his support as she heads to a runoff for a full term in South Carolina: • • "I want to thank President Trump for his steadfast support and his complete and total endorsement means so much to me." • • "He knows that I will stand with him and fight for his agenda, just like Lindsey did."
Live: President Trump told reporters that Darline Graham had called him after she advanced to the primary runoff in South Carolina. He said he planned to call her back. “It’s great that she’s doing so well,” said Trump, who has endorsed her. “She’s a very good woman.”
Live: Speaking to reporters in Columbia, S.C., Senator Darline Graham called this “a very emotional night” as she advanced to a runoff election. “Because I’m usually standing out here celebrating with Lindsey,” she said, “I know he’s looking down right now, smiling.”
Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) just took the podium after advancing to the Senate GOP runoff. • • She reflected on the loss of her brother, who died a month ago today. • • “First, I want to say that this is a very emotional night because I'm usually standing here celebrating Lindsey. So I know he’s looking down right now smiling,” he said.
Live: Darline Graham faces an uphill battle in South Carolina Senate runoff
Live: It is unclear why Senator Darline Graham has not yet made remarks to news reporters gathered in Columbia, S.C. The Associated Press called her advancing to the runoff about an hour ago, and she has had a window to make the most of primetime television news coverage.
Live: ‘Looks like we did it': US Rep. Ralph Norman speaks to supporter after making runoff
Live: Rep. Ralph Norman advances to South Carolina GOP Senate primary
Live: Norman congratulated Darline Graham for making it to the Aug. 25 runoff and said Republicans needed to come together to defeat the Democrats.
Live: Representative Ralph Norman is giving a celebratory speech at a Rock Hill, S.C., restaurant, surrounded by about a hundred people, including family members, supporters and members of the press.
News: Sen. Darline Graham will face off against Rep. Ralph Norman in the runoff to be South Carolina’s Senate GOP nominee. • • The runoff is Aug. 25. • • As of 9pm, Graham has 32.6% and Norman has 24%. Rep. Russell Fry trails in third at 20.4%.
News: Sen. Darline Graham will face off against Rep. Ralph Norman in the runoff to be South Carolina’s Senate GOP nominee. • • The runoff is Aug. 25. • • As of 9pm, Graham has 32.6% and Norman has 24%. Rep. Russell Fry trails in third at 20.4%.
Live: Ralph Norman advances in South Carolina senate Republican runoff
Live updates: Rep. Ralph Norman advances with Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina special primary election
Live: US Rep. Ralph Norman advances to runoff for US Senate Republican nomination in South Carolina
Live: Rep. Ralph Norman projected to win special South Carolina Senate GOP primary
WASHINGTON (AP) — Ralph Norman advances to Republican special primary runoff election for U.S. Senate in South Carolina
Live: WASHINGTON (AP) — Ralph Norman advances to Republican special primary runoff election for U.S. Senate in South Carolina
Live: In the contest for the second runoff spot in the South Carolina Senate race, Representative Ralph Norman’s margin over Representative Russell Fry has been growing as votes have been coming in from the state’s conservative upstate region.
Live: In the contest for the second runoff spot in the South Carolina Senate race, Representative Ralph Norman’s margin over Representative Russell Fry has been growing as votes have been coming in from the state’s conservative upstate region.
JUST IN: Darline Graham advances to the GOP Senate runoff, moving one step closer to securing the Republican nomination with Trump's backing. • • The sister of the late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Darline leads the polls in the special Republican primary as of 8:30pm ET with 32.5% of the vote, ahead of opponents Ralph Norman at 22.8% and Russell Fry at 22.7%. • • Sen. Darline Graham will be joined by one other contender in the runoff in two weeks. • • @markpmeredith @JesseBWatters @kayleighmcenany
JUST IN: Darline Graham advances to the GOP Senate runoff, moving one step closer to securing the Republican nomination with Trump's backing. • • The sister of the late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Darline leads the polls in the special Republican primary as of 8:30pm ET with 32.5% of the vote, ahead of opponents Ralph Norman at 22.8% and Russell Fry at 22.7%. • • Sen. Darline Graham will be joined by one other contender in the runoff in two weeks. • • @markpmeredith @JesseBWatters @kayleighmcenany
Live: Ralph Norman will advance to runoff in South Carolina's GOP Senate primary, CNN projects
What is this event about?
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.