Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?

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Market pricing makes Yes/No the favorite at 91%, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

YEStass.ru96%match95¢-4%
A Just Russia party has overcome the 5% barrier to enter the State Duma on its party list.
YESRussian state TV98%match
"A Just Russia" clears the 5% threshold after processing 96.95% of the votes. Thus, the party enters the State Duma via party lists.
YESvedomosti.ru97%match87¢+5%
A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections.
YESRussian Media97%match97¢-6%
A Just Russia has cleared the 5% threshold to enter the State Duma after 96.91% of the ballots have been processed, the Central Election Commission reports. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
YESRussian Media97%match
With 96.91% of the ballots processed, the A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma on party lists, the Central Election Commission reported. RBC is always at hand – download the app for iOS and Android RBC channel on "Max"
YESRussian Media97%match
With 96.91% of the ballots processed, A Just Russia has cleared the five percent threshold to enter the State Duma on party lists, according to Central Election Commission data. More IZ RU news in MAX
YESNews93%match17¢+435%
URGENT Pamfilova: A Just Russia still has a good chance of overcoming the 5% barrier
NOinterfax.com95%match71¢-87%
A Just Russia failed to overcome the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections in the federal district after more than 95% of the ballots were processed.

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution. The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes. If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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