Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Open29as of
Market pricing makes None before 2027 the favorite at 39% across 29 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Susie Wiles17%
Pete Hegseth10%
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Bessent won’t be the ‘super intelligence’ czar, Trump says PresidentDonald Trumpsaid Friday that he will not pickScott Bessentto serve as his new czar for artificial intelligence — pouring cold water on a rumor that the Treasury secretary was poised to serve as the administration’s chief AI official. “Scott Bessentwill not be going to be Super Intelligence (SI) Czar,”Trumpwrote in a Friday Truth Social post, where he used his preferred new name for the technology. “Number One, he doesn’t want to. Number Two, he’s doing such a great job at Treasury, and that’s where I want to keep him! Why would I ever make such a change?” In alengthy Truth Social postlast weekend,Trumpannounced plans to launch an “AI Force” and said he would appoint a new AI czar to lead it (the role of AI czar had previously been filled by tech investorDavid Sacks, who stepped down early this year). But the president offered few immediate details about his plans, leaving the tech industry andcongressional lawmakersuncertain about what such a proposal would entail. Four tech industry representatives told POLITICO earlier this week thatBessent’sname kept cropping up as a serious contender for the position. That chatter promptedTrumpon Friday to brand the rumors as “Just more Fake News!” Spokespeople for the White House and the Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Bessentis likely to remain an important player in theTrumpadministration’s approach to AI policy. The Treasury secretaryplayed a key rolein this summer’s negotiations between the White House and top AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI over the cybersecurity risks of their new AI models, which included the imposition of export controls on Anthropic’s models. And on Sunday, he proposed a new AI safety “notification mechanism” that wouldput him in charge of communicatingwith China on emerging threats. An administration official who has worked on AI policy describedBessentas one of the few high-levelTrumpadministration officials with a strong technical grasp of AI. Megan Messerly, Cheyenne Haslett, Dana Nickle and John Hewitt Jones contributed to this report.
NEW: Trump says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent won’t be the next AI czar— • • “Number One, he doesn’t want to. Number Two, he’s doing such a great job at Treasury, and that’s where I want to keep him! Why would I ever make such a change?”
TRUMP: BESSENT WILL NOT BE "SUPER INTELLIGENCE" CZAR • • President Trump says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent does not want the role and will remain at Treasury. • • "He's doing such a great job at Treasury, and that's where I want to keep him!" • • Trump called reports that Bessent would take the role "Fake News."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will not be going to be Super Intelligence Czar, Trump says
TRUMP: SCOTT BESSENT WILL NOT BE GOING TO BE SUPER INTELLIGENCE (SI) CZAR. • • TRUMP: BESSENT DOING SUCH A GREAT JOB AT TREASURY
Marco Rubio is shutting down any 2028 speculation. • • "I legitimately have like two jobs now. I'm not talking about this stuff." • • Secretary of State Rubio hilariously brushes off a question about a possible presidential run, pointing to already being the top U.S. diplomat and Trump's now-permanent national security advisor.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Emerging as a Frontrunner for US President Donald Trump’s New “AI Czar” Position - Semafor
President Trump has signed a commission making Marco Rubio the National Security Advisor, a White House official tells me. • • Rubio who has been in an acting role since May 2025- is now officially Secretary of State and NSA.
A White House official confirms to me @NewsNation that President Trump signed a commission making Marco Rubio the National Security Advisor. • • Rubio was previously serving in an acting capacity and now this makes his dual role as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor official.
Trump confirms Marco Rubio as National Security Advisor in addition to the State Department, while focusing on the role of special envoys, which was usually the responsibility of the Secretary of State, in resolving international conflicts such as Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and African conflicts, which are now distributed among envoys on whom Trump relies.
President Donald Trump recently signed a commission that permanently makes Marco Rubio the National Security Adviser according to a U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss staffing moves. • • The move formalizes Rubio’s dual assignment as Secretary of State and National Security Adviser.
BREAKING: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles announces that she is now cancer-free. • • Wiles says that recent pathology results from a visit to the Mayo Clinic came back clear. • • She expressed gratitude to her family, friends, medical team and everyone who kept her in their prayers, and also thanked President Trump for his continued support throughout her treatment.
BREAKING: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles announces that she is now cancer-free. • • Wiles says that recent pathology results from a visit to the Mayo Clinic came back clear. • • She expressed gratitude to her family, friends, medical team and everyone who kept her in their prayers, and also thanked President Trump for his continued support throughout her treatment.
After the dismissal of several top military officials, a Republican senator calls on Trump to fire Hegseth: "His management is incompetent." Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina called on US President Donald Trump to fire Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, accusing him of "incompetent management." According to the American newspaper The Hill, Tillis escalated his criticism against Hegseth after the resignation of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll following repeated disagreements with the Secretary of Defense regarding the dismissal of several top military officials. Tillis accused Hegseth of "creating a leadership vacuum at the top of the military ranks," demanding his dismissal. He wrote on the X platform: "I urge the president to choose a new leader who will preserve military talent rather than weaken it." Republican Senator Mike Rounds also expressed his displeasure with Driscoll's resignation, considering him "a man of great competence."
Republican Senator Calls On Trump to Replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
TRUMP REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR HEGSETH • • President Trump dismissed reports questioning Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, calling them "completely false" and reaffirming his full confidence. • • He praised Hegseth's leadership, citing stronger military recruitment, the removal of DEI initiatives, and recent U.S. operations involving Venezuela and Iran as successes. • • Trump also accused The Washington Post of spreading false reports and described its coverage as "treasonous."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.