Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
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Market pricing makes No change the favorite at 59% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: RBA has its finger on the trigger, board minutes show The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board remains unconvinced that inflation will return to target by the e
RBA: Cash Rate at Top End of Model- and Market-Based Estimates of Neutral, but Estimates Uncertain
RBA: Board Considered Whether to Raise Cash Rate by 25 Bps or Keep It Unchanged
RBA: Board Considered Whether to Raise Cash Rate by 25 Bps or Keep It Unchanged
Live: Chance of another RBA rate hike drops after jobs data The chance of a Reserve Bank interest rate hike by the end of this year has dropped from 68% to a still-hi
RBA: with Monetary Policy Judged to Be Somewhat Restrictive, the Board Decided to Leave the Cash Rate Target Unchanged While It Assesses How the Economy is Evolving
RBA: with Monetary Policy Judged to Be Somewhat Restrictive, the Board Decided to Leave the Cash Rate Target Unchanged While It Assesses How the Economy is Evolving
Live: RBA predicted to hold cash rate The Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate decision is due at 2:30pm today, and the unanimous prediction is that they will hold the
Live: RBA predicted to hold cash rate The Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate decision is due at 2:30pm today, and the unanimous prediction is that they will hold the
Live: RBA predicted to hold cash rate The Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate decision is due at 2:30pm today, and the unanimous prediction is that they will hold the
Live: RBA predicted to hold cash rate The Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate decision is due at 2:30pm today, and the unanimous prediction is that they will hold the
Australia dollar slips after six weeks of gains, RBA likely to hold rates
Australia dollar slips after six weeks of gains, RBA likely to hold rates
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.