Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting
Open6as of
Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 45% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
An Iranian official told Reuters: There is no deadline for exchanging messages with Washington through intermediaries to study the responses. An Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that there is no deadline for exchanging messages with the US through intermediaries to study the responses. The Iranian Foreign Ministry says that past experiences close the door to any optimism regarding the seriousness of the United States in the diplomatic process. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stressed the necessity of ending the war on all fronts as a fundamental condition before reaching any agreement.
An Iranian official told Reuters: There is no deadline for exchanging messages with Washington through intermediaries to study the responses. ====== An Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that there is no deadline for exchanging messages with the US through intermediaries to study the responses. The Iranian Foreign Ministry says that past experiences close the door to any optimism regarding the seriousness of the United States in the diplomatic process. The Iranian Foreign Ministry emphasizes the necessity of ending the war on all fronts as a fundamental condition before reaching any agreement.
US–IRAN: REPORTS SIGNAL POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH • • Washington has reportedly approved a draft memorandum of understanding presented to Iran by Qatari mediators, according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, citing sources close to the mediation team. • • Discussions are reportedly underway over arrangements for a simultaneous announcement by both sides. • • Negotiators are said to be discussing the first steps toward an interim agreement, followed by a resumption of US–Iran talks. • • The reports remain unconfirmed, with no official agreement announced.
A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Qatari mediators expect to receive responses from the US and Iran within 36 hours regarding a new proposal to move the talks forward.
An official familiar with the negotiations told Reuters: Qatari mediators expect the United States and the Islamic Republic to present their response to the new proposal to advance the negotiations within the next 36 hours.
Reuters, citing an official familiar with the talks: Qatari mediators expect to receive responses from the US and Iran within 36 hours.
Morad Veysi, senior analyst at Iran International, said: "On the eve of the US congressional elections, no agreement has yet been reached between Washington and the Islamic Republic; the US insists on stopping enrichment and delivering enriched uranium, and the Islamic Republic continues to oppose it. Mohsen Rezaei has spoken with Putin, Ali Bagheri has gone to China, and Qatari mediators have returned to Tehran; but at the same time, Netanyahu has spoken with Trump twice in a week, and the possibility of a military attack is still a possibility. It seems that the opportunity for an agreement is getting smaller every day and the risk of war is getting closer; even if Trump continues to talk about the possibility of an agreement, we should not forget that he was talking about negotiations before the previous attacks, but in the end he ordered the attack."
Reuters news agency, citing an official familiar with the negotiations, reported that Qatari mediators will travel to Tehran late Monday, November 1, to talk with Abbas Araqchi, the Islamic Republic's Foreign Minister, about a possible agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic.
According to the official, one of the topics discussed between Qatari mediators and Islamic Republic officials is "a draft version of a possible agreement between Tehran and Washington," on which negotiations have been ongoing for eight days.
Reuters news agency reports that Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran this evening for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi about a possible deal with the US. The source said that the version being discussed is the draft of the deal that the parties have been discussing for the past eight days. @ishayb2003
Reuters news agency reports that Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran this evening for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi about a possible deal with the US. The source said that the version being discussed is the draft of the deal that the parties have been discussing for the past eight days. @ishayb2003
QATARI MEDIATORS TRAVEL TO TEHRAN FOR TALKS ON POTENTIAL US-IRAN DEAL • • Mediators head to Tehran late Monday to meet Iran Foreign Minister Araqchi. Under discussion is a version of the draft US-Iran deal that has been under negotiation for the past eight days, per an official briefed on the talks to Reuters. • • Trump: "Iran wants to make a deal. That could happen."
Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the negotiations, that Qatari mediators will travel to Tehran late on Monday, November 1, to talk with Abbas Araqchi about a possible agreement between Iran and the United States.
Reuters: A formal meeting between US and Iranian representatives is possible after the draft agreement is finalized.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Exchange of messages with the US continues, and the Deputy Minister visited Qatar to facilitate consultations. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Negotiations with the US are based on a 7-step Iranian proposal. There is an opportunity to implement the Iranian proposal within the next few days. Exchange of messages with the US continues, and the Deputy Minister visited Qatar to facilitate consultations.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Exchange of messages with America continues, and the Deputy Minister visited Qatar to facilitate consultations. ================
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Negotiations with America are based on a 7-step Iranian proposal. There is an opportunity to implement the Iranian proposal within the next few days. Exchange of messages with America continues, and the Deputy Minister visited Qatar to facilitate consultations.
FWD from SNN International: Araqi: We have no plans to meet directly with the American delegation Seyyed Abbas Araqchi, our country's Foreign Minister, in an interview with Al Jazeera: My deputy is currently in Doha to continue consultations with Qatari friends, but we have no plans to meet with the American delegation. All rumors about the time and place of the Iran-US meeting are media speculation. If the US accepts Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will open and then talks will begin, directly or through intermediaries. In New York, we had an indirect round of negotiations with Messrs. Whittaker and Kushner, mediated by Qatar, and there I presented Iran's conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz and the seven-day plan. Our policy is clear; First, a decision should be made about the Strait of Hormuz and the implementation of Iran's conditions, and then we can discuss issues of mutual interest, including lifting sanctions and the nuclear issue. The biggest problem between Iran and the United States is distrust. If the United States wants an agreement, it must build trust. News Details Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snninternational
Al Jazeera exclusive interview with Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi/2: Reporter: Has a delegation of Iranian experts been sent to Doha to meet with the Americans? Dr. Araqchi: Yes, my deputy is in Doha right now to continue consultations with Qatari friends. We have no plans to meet with the American delegation right now. Reporter: When can we expect a direct meeting between Iran and the United States? Because Vance has spoken of a meeting in Doha, Qatar or Turkey.? Dr. Araqchi: No plan for talks has been set yet and all the rumors are media speculation. We are not in a situation where a meeting is needed right now. Our conditions are clear. Qatari and Pakistani friends are also consulting on this issue. If the US accepts these conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will open and then the talks will begin, either indirectly or without intermediaries. Reporter: What happened between you and Steve Witkoff in New York? This meeting may even have caused dissatisfaction in the Iranian parliament. Was this meeting a continuation of the talks that took place in New York? Dr. Araghchi: We had a round of indirect talks with Messrs. Witkoff and Kushner through Qatar in New York. There, I introduced Iran's conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's seven-day plan. Reporter: You talked more about issues related to Iran. But what do you think about the United States? The US Vice President and Trump himself are talking about the nuclear issue and saying that this issue will be raised in the next stage of the talks, not in the later stages. They are talking about the return of inspectors, reducing the level of enrichment, and removing some of the uranium. Iran's position on these three issues Chase Dr. Araqchi: There are two issues. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has its own conditions, and the second is the issues that we and the Americans are interested in discussing. We are interested in negotiating the complete lifting of sanctions, and they are interested in the nuclear issue. Our policy is clear; first, a decision is made on the Strait of Hormuz, which will be opened by implementing Iran's conditions, and then we will discuss the issues of interest to both parties and decide which step to take. The Pakistani and Qatari mediators are trying to bring these two stages closer together and take measures in a way that will build trust. The biggest problem between us and the United States is the problem of distrust. We have experienced diplomacy three times in the past two years, and all three times it has led to war on the part of the United States; once in 2025, once in February 2026, and once when we signed the memorandum of understanding. Mr. Trump's signature was on it, not someone else's signature; But it took them less than two weeks to break the agreement. Unfortunately, we do not have a good experience in negotiating and diplomacy with the Americans. We also reached an agreement with them in 2015; we signed the JCPOA agreement, but they broke the agreement and withdrew from it. Therefore, it is natural that we now approach the issue of negotiations and diplomacy with great caution. If the United States wants an agreement, it must take steps to build trust. Incidentally, in the negotiations that are currently underway, there are also proposals for building trust that we are considering. @s_a_araghchi [in reply to: Al Jazeera interview with Foreign Minister Sayyed Abbas Araghchi/2 @s_a_araghchi]
From Doha, an Iranian team including Kazem Gharibabadi, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, and Ali Bagheri Kani is engaged in negotiations. Tehran is demanding a complete cessation of hostilities before discussing the nuclear issue, and the American delegation is expected to include officials involved in the Iranian file.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reveals a forthcoming meeting with the United States through intermediaries, and Russian President Vladimir Putin expresses Moscow's readiness to help Tehran end the conflict with Washington.
Pezeshkian: We exchanged proposals with America through intermediaries and made some amendments. ====== Pezeshkian: We exchanged proposals with America through intermediaries and made some amendments. Pezeshkian: We will meet with the intermediaries to finalize and confirm the proposal. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Washington is holding "constructive talks" with Tehran. Trump added that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. Trump confirmed that the blockade of Iran will continue "with full force" and that 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz last night alone.
Referring to the continuation of the negotiations process, Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, said: "We presented our plan under the title of the seven-day plan and we also heard the views of the American side in response to it and we are reviewing them. We will present our response within the next few days." The Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic said: "The negotiation process is still ongoing and messages are being exchanged through mediators."
Iran to respond to US views on its proposal within a few days, foreign minister says
Iran to respond to US views on its proposal within a few days, foreign minister says
Axios wrote that this highly unusual meeting was not announced by the Trump administration, and noted that the last time a similar meeting was held was in June 2025, just days before Israel went to war with the Islamic Republic.
Axios wrote that this highly unusual meeting was not announced by the Trump administration, and noted that the last time a similar meeting was held was in June 2025, just days before Israel went to war with the Islamic Republic.
Axios wrote that this highly unusual meeting was not announced by the Trump administration, and noted that the last time a similar meeting was held was in June 2025, just days before Israel went to war with the Islamic Republic.
Axios: Diplomacy between Iran and the US remains deadlocked According to Axios, negotiations between Iran and the US remain deadlocked. According to the report, Trump is seeking to quickly reach a comprehensive agreement, while Iran prefers slower, indirect negotiations and more limited agreements. Axios says that distrust between the two sides has increased after mutual accusations of violating previous understandings, and domestic pressures have also hardened the positions of both sides. According to the report, Trump has also become more skeptical about the possibility of reaching a lasting agreement with Iran.
Axios reported on Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the matter, that Qatari mediators’ efforts to create a diplomatic opening between the United States and the Islamic Republic have made little progress, and that neither side is willing to back down. According to Axios, the impasse has raised the possibility of renewed military conflict. U.S. officials believe that U.S. President Donald Trump may order the resumption of military operations after the midterm elections. The two sources said that Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York on Monday and presented a two-page proposal. The plan was aimed at addressing Tehran’s demand for an end to the U.S. naval blockade and Washington’s demand for nuclear concessions. Al-Thawadi then met with Trump’s envoy, Jared Kushner, and U.S. officials in Washington. US Vice President JD Vance was also present for part of the meeting. One source said: “The negotiations have stalled. The Iranians want things that the US cannot accept and the US thinks it is winning, so it sees no need to compromise.”
After diplomatic progress stalled, Qatar is mediating talks between Abbas Araqchi and US officials in New York. Iran has proposed a seven-day ceasefire, linking a cessation of hostilities and the lifting of sanctions to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of nuclear negotiations.
US and Iran hold indirect talks; expect a response by the 29th, says foreign minister
What is this event about?
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.
A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.
A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.
Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening.
The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.