Maduro Prison Time?

OpenOutcomes5as of

Market pricing makes No prison time the favorite at 55% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

60+28%
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What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

60+alarabiya94%match25¢+12%
The US has leveled new torture charges against ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
<20alarabiya94%match92¢+1%
The US has leveled new torture charges against ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
60+Iranian Media94%match29¢-3%
US charges Maduro and his wife with torturing opponents According to the amended indictment filed in Manhattan federal court, Maduro and Flores have been charged with one count of conspiracy to commit torture, in addition to the drug trafficking charges they previously faced. isna.ir/xdXd74 @isna94
A superseding indictment was just unsealed charging Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores with conspiracy to commit torture, including the alleged torture of United States citizens for over two decades, in addition to the narcotics trafficking and weapons offenses already charged. • • Since their capture and arrest, @TheJusticeDept has been working to uncover the extent of their alleged crimes against the people of Venezuela and of the United States, and these additional charges reflect the dedication of this Administration to delivering justice for the victims of torture, narcoterrorism, and organized crime.
A superseding indictment was just unsealed charging Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores with conspiracy to commit torture, including the alleged torture of United States citizens for over two decades, in addition to the narcotics trafficking and weapons offenses already charged. • • Since their capture and arrest, @TheJusticeDept has been working to uncover the extent of their alleged crimes against the people of Venezuela and of the United States, and these additional charges reflect the dedication of this Administration to delivering justice for the victims of torture, narcoterrorism, and organized crime.
A superseding indictment was just unsealed charging Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores with conspiracy to commit torture, including the alleged torture of United States citizens for over two decades, in addition to the narcotics trafficking and weapons offenses already charged. • • Since their capture and arrest, @TheJusticeDept has been working to uncover the extent of their alleged crimes against the people of Venezuela and of the United States, and these additional charges reflect the dedication of this Administration to delivering justice for the victims of torture, narcoterrorism, and organized crime.
60+Politico Courts Reporter94%match29¢-3%
The newly filed indictment against Maduro and his wife adds one additional count: conspiracy to commit torture.
60+Reuters92%match29¢-3%
Venezuela’s Maduro, Wife Cilia Flores Charged in US with Conspiracy to Commit Torture - Court Records
<20nbcnews.com91%match6¢+17%
Ex-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and wife seek to end drug charges case on immunity grounds
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"I have immunity from prosecution," former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asks a US judge to drop criminal charges against him related to drug trafficking.
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"I have immunity from prosecution," former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asks a US judge to drop criminal charges against him related to drug trafficking.
20–40alarabiya91%match87¢+10%
"I have immunity from prosecution," former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asks a US judge to drop criminal charges against him related to drug trafficking.
40–60alarabiya91%match93¢+5%
"I have immunity from prosecution," former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asks a US judge to drop criminal charges against him related to drug trafficking.
<20alarabiya96%match94¢-1%
Nicolas Maduro releases first two photos from his New York prison ahead of his trial; US court sets June 1st of next year for the start of his trial.
20–40alarabiya95%match88¢+9%
Nicolas Maduro releases first two photos from his New York prison ahead of his trial; US court sets June 1st of next year for the start of his trial.
40–60alarabiya96%match94¢+4%
Nicolas Maduro releases first two photos from his New York prison ahead of his trial; US court sets June 1st of next year for the start of his trial.
60+alarabiya97%match71¢+1%
US prosecutors have set June 2027 as the tentative date for the start of Maduro's trial in New York on drug trafficking charges.
<20alarabiya97%match88¢+6%
US prosecutors have set June 2027 as the tentative date for the start of Maduro's trial in New York on drug trafficking charges.
20–40alarabiya96%match95¢+1%
US prosecutors have set June 2027 as the tentative date for the start of Maduro's trial in New York on drug trafficking charges.
40–60alarabiya97%match89¢+10%
US prosecutors have set June 2027 as the tentative date for the start of Maduro's trial in New York on drug trafficking charges.
60+alhadath97%match71¢+1%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
<20alhadath96%match85¢+9%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
20–40alhadath96%match95¢+1%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
40–60alhadath96%match88¢+11%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
60+alarabiya97%match71¢+1%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
<20alarabiya96%match85¢+9%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
20–40alarabiya96%match95¢+1%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
40–60alarabiya96%match88¢+11%
Facing serious charges, the US judiciary sets a trial date for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in June 2027.
60+Iranian Media96%match71¢+1%
Maduro's trial postponed until next year Yesterday, a court in the United States set June 1, 2027 (11 Khordad 1406) as the date for the trial of kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. @iribnews
<20Iranian Media96%match83¢+12%
Maduro's trial postponed until next year Yesterday, a court in the United States set June 1, 2027 (11 Khordad 1406) as the date for the trial of kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. @iribnews

What is this event about?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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