Maduro Prison Time?No prison time

OpenVol$438KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 40% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES40¢
NO60¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOThe Economist98%match78¢-23%
Prosecutors hardly ever lose mega-narco cases—and jurors will not need to see photos of him holding bricks of cocaine to find him guilty. But could Nicolás Maduro persuade them nonetheless?
NOCGTN Europe99%match82¢-27%
Maduro enters courtroom, shackled
YESReuters98%match14¢+186%
[Replying to @Reuters] Maduro and his wife were escorted by armed officers at the detention center in Brooklyn shortly after 7 a.m. and led to a helicopter. The pair were wearing tan prison suits > When Maduro makes his initial appearance in court, a judge will likely advise him of the charges against him and ensure he has a defense lawyer. It could be months or more than a year before Maduro stands trial
NOReuters98%match85¢-29%
Maduro set to appear in US court to face narco-terrorism charges
NOPolymarket99%match85¢-29%
BREAKING: Maduro projected to be sentenced to 60+ years in prison, but there's still a 14% chance he gets away with no prison time.

Where does the news lean?

1YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

What would make this resolve YES?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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