Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting
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This hub tracks 3 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
BREAKING: Hezbollah launches more attacks on Israeli military in southern Lebanon • • LIVE updates:
Lebanese and Israeli envoys will meet in Washington on Thursday to discuss extending a U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, which is set to expire on Sunday. • • More Here →
Israel’s foreign minister has urged Beirut to make joint efforts with Israel to counter the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, ahead of talks between the countries set to resume in Washington. • •
Lebanese President: Contacts are underway to extend the ceasefire with Israel
BREAKING: Hezbollah says attacked northern Israel in response to Israeli ceasefire violations • • LIVE updates:
Israel's ambassador to Washington: Hezbollah is violating the ceasefire and we will defend ourselves.
Israel's ambassador to Washington: Hezbollah is violating the ceasefire and we will defend ourselves.
HEZBOLLAH: FIRED ROCKETS AT ISRAEL ON TUESDAY 'IN RESPONSE TO CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS' ...
HEZBOLLAH FIRED ROCKETS AT ISRAEL ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS - STATEMENT. ...
Israel accuses Hezbollah of ‘blatant’ ceasefire violation
Israel accuses Hezbollah of multiple violations of ceasefire
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam: We will continue to pursue the path of diplomacy through direct talks with Israel.
The Lebanese Prime Minister: We will continue to pursue the path of diplomacy through direct talks with Israel.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.